Fantasy Upside
Generally speaking, tight end breakouts take three years and wide receiver breakouts take two years. Rookie running backs, on the other hand, can have an immediate impact in their first year. Don’t shy away from Jacobs because he is a rookie and you haven’t seen him play on Sundays.
The Raiders used premium draft capital by selecting him in the first round of the draft with the 24th overall pick. Oakland was an ideal landing spot for Jacobs because his three-down skill set matches the void left by the departure of Marshawn Lynch. Isaiah Crowell would have challenged Jacobs for touches, but he suffered a torn Achilles in May and will not return this year. Doug Martin and Jalen Richard are still with the team but expect Jacobs to get the vast majority of touches. 4for4’s median projections have Jacobs finishing with 285 total touches. However, his receiving ability gives him the potential to finish with over 300 touches.
Fantasy Downside
All indications point towards Jacobs being used heavily by the Raiders but he was more of a rotational player in college. In his freshman season at Alabama, Jacobs was behind three teammates in total rushing attempts. He battled a hamstring injury in 2017 and saw his total rushing attempts drop to fifth-highest on the team. Last season, his role expanded and he finished with 120 rushing attempts, and 20 receptions, which was only behind Damien Harris who had 150 rushing attempts and 22 receptions. Jacobs’ durability is the primary question mark because it is reasonable to think Jacobs could finish his rookie season with close to 300 total touches.
2019 Bottom Line
Jacobs was not used as a true three-down running back at Alabama because Nick Saban had two NFL caliber running backs on the same team. Jacobs was in a running back committee with Damien Harris, who was drafted by New England in the third round. Jacobs is expected to get the lion’s share of attempts above teammates Jalen Richard and Doug Martin. Oakland might face negative game scripts on a regular basis because they play against Kansas City, LA Chargers, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay, and Houston. However, Jacobs’ role in the receiving game will help to protect him against these situations. Three down running backs are rare in today’s NFL and they should not be overlooked in fantasy drafts because opportunity leads to production. Jacobs will face a middle of the pack, 16th easiest running back schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.