Khalil Herbert

Fantasy Upside
Khalil Herbert showed some promise as a rookie in 2021, and was then given some more touches in his sophomore season. Herbert finished with 731 rushing yards and four touchdowns, boasting an impressive 5.7 yards per carry. Herbert mostly split his touches last season with David Montgomery, but Montgomery is out of the picture now, largely leaving Herbert as the lead back of this offense. Montgomery leaves behind 210 rushing attempts from last season, and given that the Bears are still built for a run-first offense, we should see plenty of touches for Herbert in his third year.

Fantasy Downside
While Montgomery is gone, the Bears’ biggest rushing threat is still on the team in Justin Fields. We’re currently projecting more rushing attempts and rushing yards for Fields than Herbert. The Bears also brought in D'Onta Foreman this offseason, who was nearly a 1,000-yard rusher last season. Foreman is also a strong red zone presence as he had more carries inside the 20 than any Bears player last season (Herbert was third on his team). Herbert also isn’t a strong receiving threat, catching just 23 passes in 30 games played.

2023 Bottom Line
Herbert might have slightly higher production than last season, but this is still a very split backfield. Fields is going to get carries and Foreman is going to get carries, and both are likely better bets to score touchdowns than Herbert most weeks. So when you add in his split touches, his lack of scoring touchdowns and his lack of receptions, there isn’t a whole lot there to be excited about. He’ll be in the RB3 range for the draft, with more value in standard formats.

Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bears activated Khalil Herbert (hip) from injured reserve, which means he's likely going to play against the Bills in Week 16. Herbert saw some nice production before his injury, splitting touches with David Montgomery and Justin Fields. In the 10 games he played, he averaged 64.3 rush yards per game (with a very limited role as a receiver). He was a solid flex/RB3 play before his injury, but there are a lot of question marks heading into Week 16. Will he still see that same usage given the production Fields has on the ground? Is he fully recovered from his injury or will he be limited in his snaps? There's just a lot of risk in playing Herbert in Week 16. He's not a a good play against Buffalo this week.

Week 9 vs. Miami Dolphins

Khalil Herbert only played 22 snaps (28%) in Week 8, but he still saw a team-high 16 carries, finishing with one more carry than David Montgomery. Unfortunately, Herbert was a non-factor as a receiver, seeing 0 targets. Herbert was productive with his 16 carries, finishing with 99 yards and a score, giving him touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Last season, the Bears mostly just kept the touches to Montgomery, but there's now been a shift to go with a very run-heavy approach and give both of their backs touches. This has made both backs worth playing in fantasy, although it obviously limits the ceiling of each. Herbert should be viewed as a strong RB3/flex option in a decent matchup against the Dolphins in Week 9.