Fantasy Upside
Tony Pollard was an efficiency monster in 2022, finishing as the RB5 with 0.02 Rush Expected Points Added per Carry. He racked up 1,007 rushing yards on just 193 carries, all the while sharing the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott. Now Elliott has gone, and Pollard has (in theory) the backfield all to himself. Pollard was the RB7 last season while averaging 14.3 Half-PPR points per game. With an increased role, and a stronger emphasis on the ground game by the Cowboys, Pollard has a chance to be one of the elites at the RB position in 2023.
Fantasy Downside
Pollard is coming off a significant injury suffered during the Cowboys postseason loss to the 49ers, and may not be fully fit for training camp. There are also whispers that the Cowboys breakup with Ezekiel Elliott may not be a permanent separation, and even if Elliott does not return there is a danger that the Cowboys add a veteran back. This would confine Pollard to the change-of-pace role he played in 2022, and kill the dreams of fantasy managers across the lands.
2023 Bottom Line
Assuming he returns to something like full health, and that the Cowboys lose Ezekiel Elliott's phone number in the next few weeks, Pollard will be given the chance to transfer his efficiency into volume in 2023. He should once again be considered a top-12 option at the running back spot, and someone to definitely consider in the second round of drafts ahead of the new season.