Trevor Lawrence

Week 2 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Trevor Lawrence got off to a steady but unspectacular start to his 2022 against Washington in Week 1. Lawrence passed for 275 yards and a touchdown, completing just over 57.1% of his passes while also tossing an interception. He finished with 13.4 Half PPR points, good for a QB24 finish on the week.

Lawrence has a chance to build on this in Week 2 as the Jaguars take on the Colts. The Colts allowed Davis Mills to complete 23 of his 37 passes for 230 yards and a brace of touchdowns last week, which gave Mills 15.5 fantasy points. Lawrence should be viewed as a mid-level QB2 this week.

2022 Fantasy Upside
As NFL.com recently noted, Trevor Lawrence, like most of the members of last year's rookie class, struggled for stretches. The No. 1 overall pick tied for the league lead with 17 interceptions (matching Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford). But there were signs of the transformational talent that made him the shoo-in top QB in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lawrence combines arm talent with athleticism and barring some minor issues, there is zero question Lawrence has the goods to be a premier QB for years to come. Meanwhile, the Jags began upgrading their supporting cast, starting with injecting speed into the offense under new coach Doug Pederson, who will focus on furthering Lawrence's development. Even if you question some of the moves they've made to upgrade around Lawrence, there's no denying the Jaguars made a substantial investment in their receiving corps (most notably Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Jones) this offseason. Beyond that, Pederson himself is a former quarterback, giving him a leg up on relating to the 2021 No. 1 overall pick. Pederson also brought in Press Taylor as coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter as passing game coordinator, and Mike McCoy as QBs coach - providing Lawrence with significant experience to train him up. Given the new coach's history with elevating QBs, Lawrence should be in for a far better 2022.

2022 Fantasy Downside
Last season was a slog. As 4for4.com's John Paulsen pointed out, Lawrence finished his rookie season as the QB24, but his per game average (11.3 PPG) was even worse (QB39). While there's lots of room for improvement, Lawrence definitely needs to make those strides.

2022 Bottom Line
Paulsen went on to note that Lawrence fell into a category of “bad rookies” who, on average, improve their points per game by ~25% in their second seasons. In his sophomore season playing for Pederson, Carson Wentz increased his points per game by 60.7%. A similar jump for Lawrence would put him in the fringe QB1 conversation. Getting that upside at a discount is worthwhile as you're considering QB2s.

Week 16 @ New York Jets
As it stands in Week 16 of his rookie year, #1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence can be safely written off as having any fantasy relevance whatsoever as a rookie. Lawrence has thrown exactly one touchdown since Week 7. He only has nine passing touchdowns on the year compared to 14 interceptions. He's only completing 58% of his passes and managing 5.9 yards per attempt. It's too early to give up on Lawrence completely, especially when he was saddled with the worst coaching staff in the league as a rookie, but the concerns in Jacksonville have to be pivoting from whether Lawrence can be a decent fantasy QB, to whether he will end up being a decent real-life QB. Needless to say, he cannot be started in fantasy championship matchups and should be sitting comfortably on waivers for the rest of the season.