Tua Tagovailoa

Week 9 at Buffalo Bills

With Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup and a matchup against Arizona, expectations were high for the Dolphins offense. Unfortunately, things didn't go exactly as planned. Tagovailoa finished 28-for-38 for 234 yards and 1 touchdown in a lackluster return. To cap things off, the Dolphins ended up losing to the Cardinals thanks to a late comeback by Kyler Murray.

Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills and things likely won't change this week as the Bills are 5th aFPA against quarterbacks. Tagovailoa is a back-end QB2 this week so keeping expectations low is for the best. As is looking elsewhere in standard leagues.

Week 2 vs. Buffalo Bills

With the injury news this week it seems that more will be on Tua Tagovailoa's left arm than original anticipated in this Thursday night matchup. With Raheem Mostert out and De'Von Achane a game-time decision, Tagovailoa will be counted on to lead the offense without one, or two, key pieces.

Tagovailoa led the league in passing last week and the Dolphins showed glimpses of the high-flying offense we saw in the first half of last season. Buffalo will be a tougher test, but Tagovailoa is still a QB1 on the week and should be counted on in all formats.

Fantasy Upside
Having gotten his big payday after finishing as QB10 for fantasy in 2023, Tua Tagovailoa now looks to improve for 2024. With a stronger surrounding cast thanks to the additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington, Jonnu Smith, and Jaylen Wright, the ability to play point guard in head coach Mike McDaniel's offense should be even easier. The added depth should also help take some pressure off of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as they did last year. Despite finishing as QB10 last year, he's currently going as QB15 on Underdog which leaves some obvious upside if he can improve on last year.

Fantasy Downside
If you're looking to fade Tagovailoa at cost, the story you tell yourself is that he finished QB21 in the season's final five weeks and struggled against the Chiefs in the cold. We can't even blame the weather for the drop in play as four of his final five games in the regular season were in Miami, so maybe teams figured out a thing or two about Mike McDaniel's offense and forced Tua to win games himself and he struggled.

2024 Bottom Line
On paper, the schedule will be difficult in the fantasy playoffs, but it is tough to read too much into it now. At QB15, Tagovailoa seems priced right and can certainly have the spiked weeks to help in best ball or as a QB2 in Superflex. In redraft leagues, he likely isn't in the QB1 conversation and may go undrafted in shallower (8 or 10-team) leagues.