Tua Tagovailoa

Week 2 at New England Patriots

Tua Tagovailoa had a monster Week 1 game as he finished with a league-high 466 pass yards. He also added three touchdowns along with two turnovers (1 INT, 1 FUM). His 466 yards fell just short of his career high of 469, which he set last season. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his receiving options, these types of games are bound to happen. Although we expect Tagovailoa to come back to reality in Week 2 as he faces a tough Patriots defense. Last season against New England, Tagovailoa finished with 270 yards and one touchdown vs. the Patriots (he was inactive for the second game). The Patriots also held Jalen Hurts in check in Week 1 this season. Tagovailoa should be viewed around the QB10 range in Week 2.

Fantasy Upside
Tua Tagovailoa had a strong 2022 season, finishing with career highs in passing yards (3,548) and passing touchdowns (25). Miami’s acquisition of WR Tyreek Hill made an immediate and obvious impact to the entire offense, but certainly to Tagovailoa. In 23 career games in his first two seasons, Tagovailoa had three career 300-yard games. In 13 games last season, he had four 300-yard games (plus games of 299 yards and 295 yards). Miami’s offense arguably got even better in the offseason by acquiring WR Braxton Berrios and drafting RB Devon Achane. Tagovailoa is set up to have another productive season in 2023.

Fantasy Downside
The obvious downside to Tagovailoa is his inability to stay on the field. He missed time in 2021 due to injuries, and then he had concussion issues in 2022. He even admitted in the offseason that he contemplated retirement due to the concussion problems, but ultimately decided to keep playing. Outside of health, the only slight concern for Tagovailoa is his lack of rushing ability. A lot of the top quarterbacks in fantasy offer some sort of rushing threat. In fact, of our top 10 projected QBs, none are projected below 200 rushing yards (Tagovailoa is projected under 100) and half of them are projected over 500.

2023 Bottom Line
If Tagovailoa can avoid injury issues and stay on the field, then he can finish as a top-10 QB in fantasy. He has arguably the best WR duo in the league, he showed huge improvements last season and Miami’s offseason acquisitions should only make this offense even better. Everything is set up for Tagovailoa to set even more career highs in 2023. He should be viewed as an every-week starting QB option in fantasy.

Week 15 at Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa had a poor performance last week, throwing for just 145 yards and one touchdown. That sets a new season low in passing yards for Tagovailoa (excluding the game he left early due to injury). Things don't get much easier this week as Tagovailoa faces a tough Bills defense. Tagovailoa struggled against Buffalo earlier in the season, finishing with just 186 yards and a touchdown. This week is even more complicated as there is some extreme weather expected in Buffalo. Tagovailoa still has more promise than a lot of quarterbacks this week, but his upside certainly takes a hit considering the circumstances. Tagovailoa should be viewed around the QB10-QB15 range for Week 15.