Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC Singapore: Holloway vs Jung
After an exciting event in Boston for UFC 292, UFC Fight Night travels to Singapore this week. Fight fans in the States will have to wake up early to catch these fights live. Max Holloway takes on Chan Sung Jung in the main event. The rest of the card features up-and-coming Asian prospects along with some pick-em lines that could make this card difficult to navigate. The most important fight on this care will be Erin Blanchfield vs. Taila Santos, where the winner will likely be propelled into a title shot in the near future.
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UFC Singapore Best Bets
Parlay of the Week - Max Holloway, Rinya Nakamura, and Rolando Bedoya to win (+105, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Max Holloway vs. Chan Sung Jung
Chan Sung Jung is one of the more entertaining fighters on the UFC roster. He is willing to go out on his shield in every fight. Recently, he took a brutal loss against Champion Alexander Volkanowski. In that fight, he was simply outclassed for the entirety of the bout. The Korean Zombie is a creative and willing striker who simply takes too much damage. His negative striking differential will be front and center in this fight against one of the best strikers to ever grace the cage. Jung has sub-50% wrestling offense. When combined with Holloway’s excellent takedown defense, it will likely be an uphill battle for Jung as this fight takes place on the feet.
Max Holloway is the best featherweight in the world, not named Alexander Volkanowski. He continuously puts on striking clinics against other top fighters in the division. His crisp combinations and movement should prove to be too much for Jung. Holloway will keep this fight standing where his boxing volume and footwork will likely overwhelm Jung in the later rounds. Jung is too tough for his own good, and just as his fight with Volkanowski likely took years off his career, this fight could likely do the same. Holloway should be able to outclass Jung in this fight.
Fight Breakdown: Rinya Nakamura vs. Fernie Garcia
Fernie Garcia has power in his hands. He is, however, 0-2 in the UFC after getting a contract on DWCS. A loss to Journey Newsom, who is 1-4 in the UFC, makes you question whether Garcia is a UFC-level fighter. Garcia will seemingly be outclassed across the board by the Japanese prospect. Garcia is primarily a decision fighter, but he will have a hard time dictating where and how this fight takes place. For that reason, it is knockout or bust in this fight for Garcia.
Nakamura’s moneyline is wide, but I have confidence in adding it to this parlay. My model has him as a huge favorite, and fighters that have a 75+ rating have won at an 83% rate thus far in 2023. Nakamura has power in his hands and a legit wrestling resume. Nakamura should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. This is a showcase fight for an up-and-coming Asian prospect, and the UFC is looking to develop him. This spot is prime for Nakamura to succeed and get a finish.
Fight Breakdown: Rolando Bedoya vs. Song Kenan
Song Kenan is the veteran in this matchup. He has power in his hands and has a 65% finish rate. The issue for Kenan is that he can be outworked and often has holes in his striking defense. His negative striking differential will be front and center in this matchup. Kenan is coming off two straight knockout losses. His wins in the UFC have come against fighters with a combined 1-10 UFC record. Kenan’s low output and recent performances put him behind the gun in a fight that seems like it's knockout or bust for Kenan.
Rolando Bedoya lost his debut via split decision against the dangerous Khaos Williams. Some argue that Bedoya won that fight. In this matchup, Kenan will likely be a more technical striker than Williams. Where Bedoya will shine is in his striking output. Bedoya landed more strikes in the third round of his fight with Williams than Kenan has in any of his UFC fights. His ability to double and triple Kenan’s output will likely cause problems for the entirety of the fight. Bedoya should be able to cruise to victory on the back of his striking volume, and while there will be opportunities for a finish, I expect him to cruise to a decision win.
Risk: 1.55 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit (Playable down to -175)
DraftKings Bonus
Prop of the Week - Rinya Nakamura wins by TKO (-135, FanDuel)
Fight Breakdown: Rinya Nakamura vs. Fernie Garcia
Nakamura is the biggest favorite on this card. While his money line is difficult to bet, there is still value in this prop. My projections give Nakamura the highest chance of any fighter on this card winning via knockout. Nakamura has power in his hands and upper-class wrestling for the division. Nakamura can dictate where this fight takes place and will be live for a finish on the feet or on the ground with his wrestling control and ground and pound.
Risk: 0.5 unit on FanDuel to win .37 unit
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
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