Monotone's Week 17 Best Bets: Week 17 NFL Player Prop Bets

After another successful week in the NFL, our season-long total currently sits at 112-66 +27.75u for a 16% ROI. There is no better time to have a good week than right before the holidays, and hopefully, we can bring that momentum into the new year. I appreciate everyone who takes the time to check out these articles, especially during such a busy season. This week may be a bit hectic, but we will still have plenty of NFL action. Check out my favorite spots for this week, and most importantly, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

This is still one of the best times of the year to bet on sports with so much going on. We have a unique combination of young players that the market doesn't know how to price, along with the obvious high-level matchups with huge playoff implications. Taking advantage of the varying motivation levels is something we are going to do frequently to end the season, and I see plenty of opportunities this weekend.

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Week 17 Props

Xavier Worthy o4.5 receptions +100

Xavier Worthy is coming in with some good momentum after recording seven catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. He’s now seen 11+ targets in back-to-back games (27% target share) and 5+ receptions in 4 straight games. The rookie is looking more and more comfortable in this system, and I don't think his usage is going anywhere. Going against a great Steelers pass rush, the Chiefs are going to have to get the ball out quickly; I think that will benefit Xavier Worhy greatly. He’s a great short-yardage guy and highly involved in the screen game. Additionally, he’s been just missing on a bunch of deep shots with Mahomes, Worthy finished 3rd in uncatchable air yards last week, have to assume they are finally gonna connect on one of those.

Patrick Mahomes clearly isn’t at 100% right now, so maintaining an efficient short passing game will be key to keeping him out of trouble. We saw him extend some plays on the ground last week, but he also did come up limping at times, so I do think they will want to limit his rushing as much as possible. When you think about who benefits the most from designed short passing, Xavier Worthy instantly comes to mind. Sure, he’s an incredibly fast receiver that will get some deep shots, but he’s getting designed screens and touches around the line of scrimmage that are extremely easy to convert.

Risk 1u to win 1u FD, +105 HR/ESPN/MGM, +100 FD, -102 CZR playable to -135

Dalton Schultz (HOU) Over 3.5 receptions -113

Play with @Noonan

Attrition has hit the Texans' pass-catcher core in a big way this season, and outside of Nico Collins, I think Dalton Schultz will be the second look moving forward now that Tank Dell is out. Schultz's route rate has gone up in the past two weeks, and he's coming off of an eight-target game against the Chiefs last week.

The Ravens have allowed the seventh-most tight-end receptions on the season, and in a trailing game script with an 85-90% route rate, it'll be hard for Schultz to see fewer than 6-7 targets here. With such a beat-up group of weapons, this profiles as the perfect spot for Schultz to continue his heavy usage.

Risk: 1.13 units to win 1 Widely available in this range, play to -150

Calvin Ridley (TEN) Over 62.5 Receiving Yards -113

with @Noonan

Calvin Ridley is checking a few "narrative street" boxes this week. First, he said he really wants to stack up back-to-back 1 K-yard seasons, and he needs 143 yards over the next two weeks to get it done. He also said returning to Jacksonville, where he played last year, means a lot to him. He said his former teammates were chirping at him a lot in the first meeting, and he wants to get them this time.

Ridley's been a target hog vs man coverage, which Jacksonville runs as much as anyone. He has an 18% target share vs zone, but that jumps up to 29.6% vs man. Will Levis forced 12 targets Ridley's way in the first meeting, but I have more faith in 6-7 Mason Rudolph targets in this start versus the 12 Levis targets Ridley saw back in Week 13.

Risk 1.13 to win 1 - would play to 66.5. 60.5 -125 on DK CZR and MGM, 63.5 -114 Builder

Drake London o57.5 rec yards -110

Without Marshon Lattimore this Washington secondary goes back to a grim spot. DC’s two best corners are now Mike Sainristril & Noah I, who are both slightly undersized at 5’11/5’10, both play their best ball in the slot. He plays there roughly 40% of snaps, and should have a massive size mismatch on those opportunities. Outside of that he will mostly see Benjamin St Juste, who is one of the worst corners in football. This is truly a fantastic matchup, and with everything on the line I expect the rookie to lean into his WR1.

Penix was third in EPA/dropback last week, and did exactly what he needed to get his team the win. Things should only get better as they get more work in, and Washington profiles as a great man up considering all the shoot-out’s they’ve played in.

Risk 1.5 to win 1.36u -110 365/HR/MGM, 59.5 CZR/DK -110, playable to 63.5

Jonnu Smith o3.5 receptions -125

Connor might fire me if he see’s me playing overs in this game… but I think the conditions plus the backup QB situation is kinda perfect for the short yardage easy to convert targets Jonnu has been getting. His rise has been pretty surprising this season, but he’s even stayed consistent in the games w/o Tua going over in 2/3. The Dolphins haven’t been able to get anything going on the ground a/o Tua, and the Browns should stack the box aggressively. Huntley has never really checked down much to RB’s, instead he’s hyper focused on the TE position throughout his career. While the Dolphins playoff chances mostly rest in the hands of Joe Flacco, I see the Dolphins winning the time of possession battle (thanks DTR) and having to pass enough to cover this number with short yardage high percentile throws. .

Risk 0.63u to win 0.5u -125 365, -127 builder, -134 ESPN/CZR

Breece Hall o24.5 rec yards -113 FD/CZR

The Bills have been a funnel to RBs through the air, allowing the second-most yards per game to the position (47.67) and the second-most receptions this year. They’ve allowed 3+ catches an opposing back on 14/16 games, in games with 3+ catches Breece is over in 9/10 this year.

Rodgers and company should be playing in a trialing game script and forced to throw the ball plenty. Rodgers is a petty fella, and I think the market is underrating the fight they still have left.

Risk 0.85u to win 0.75u 23.5 365, rest of market 24.5 playable to -130

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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