Monotone's Week 17 Best Bets: Week 17 NFL Player Prop Bets
After another successful week in the NFL, our season-long total currently sits at 112-66 +27.75u for a 16% ROI. There is no better time to have a good week than right before the holidays, and hopefully, we can bring that momentum into the new year. I appreciate everyone who takes the time to check out these articles, especially during such a busy season. This week may be a bit hectic, but we will still have plenty of NFL action. Check out my favorite spots for this week, and most importantly, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
This is still one of the best times of the year to bet on sports with so much going on. We have a unique combination of young players that the market doesn't know how to price, along with the obvious high-level matchups with huge playoff implications. Taking advantage of the varying motivation levels is something we are going to do frequently to end the season, and I see plenty of opportunities this weekend.
You can get all of my bets and everything at 4for4 with a betting subscription! Find all of my plays in the subscriber discord in my channel and make sure to opt into notifications by going to the Role Assign channel. Thanks to the Christmas deal, you can get all of my plays for under 20$ for the rest of the season with Code TONE.
Get your first month at 4for4 for $10 with code: MONO or 25% off the full year with code: TONE! Subscribe here: 4for4.com/plans
Week 17 Props
Xavier Worthy o4.5 receptions +100
Xavier Worthy is coming in with some good momentum after recording seven catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. He’s now seen 11+ targets in back-to-back games (27% target share) and 5+ receptions in 4 straight games. The rookie is looking more and more comfortable in this system, and I don't think his usage is going anywhere. Going against a great Steelers pass rush, the Chiefs are going to have to get the ball out quickly; I think that will benefit Xavier Worhy greatly. He’s a great short-yardage guy and highly involved in the screen game. Additionally, he’s been just missing on a bunch of deep shots with Mahomes, Worthy finished 3rd in uncatchable air yards last week, have to assume they are finally gonna connect on one of those.
Patrick Mahomes clearly isn’t at 100% right now, so maintaining an efficient short passing game will be key to keeping him out of trouble. We saw him extend some plays on the ground last week, but he also did come up limping at times, so I do think they will want to limit his rushing as much as possible. When you think about who benefits the most from designed short passing, Xavier Worthy instantly comes to mind. Sure, he’s an incredibly fast receiver that will get some deep shots, but he’s getting designed screens and touches around the line of scrimmage that are extremely easy to convert.
Risk 1u to win 1u FD, +105 HR/ESPN/MGM, +100 FD, -102 CZR playable to -135
Dalton Schultz (HOU) Over 3.5 receptions -113
Play with @Noonan
Attrition has hit the Texans' pass-catcher core in a big way this season, and outside of Nico Collins, I think Dalton Schultz will be the second look moving forward now that Tank Dell is out. Schultz's route rate has gone up in the past two weeks, and he's coming off of an eight-target game against the Chiefs last week.
The Ravens have allowed the seventh-most tight-end receptions on the season, and in a trailing game script with an 85-90% route rate, it'll be hard for Schultz to see fewer than 6-7 targets here. With such a beat-up group of weapons, this profiles as the perfect spot for Schultz to continue his heavy usage.
Risk: 1.13 units to win 1 Widely available in this range, play to -150
If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!
This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
