DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 12

Nov 22, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 12 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

This week's breakdown will look a little different with the Thanksgiving slate thrown into Week 12. It'll be broken down into the Thanksgiving and Main slates.

Thanksgiving Slate

Kirk Cousins ($8,800/$7,100) is obviously in the best spot among quarterbacks on this Thanksgiving slate. Washington has a slate-high implied 26 points and are at home against a Giants defense ranked 27th in quarterback aFPA. While he projects for the most raw points, paying up for Cousins will force you to pay down elsewhere. Cousins is easier to get to on FanDuel, but Case Keenum projects as our best value on DraftKings.
Dak Prescott ($8,900/$6,700) and the Cowboys have forced just 16 points over their last two games as their offense has been sputtering without LT Tyron Smith and RB Ezekiel Elliott. Dak has been sacked 12 times in his two starts without them and now faces an elite Chargers pass rush. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram currently rank as PFF’s No. 1 and No. 2 edge rushers, respectively. Smith is considered a game-time decision, but Dak’s outlook should improve if he suits up. The Cowboys are implied for 24 points, but it’s a tough overall matchup as the Chargers rank third in quarterback aFPA. You’re also not getting much of a discount on him.
Philip Rivers ($7,600/$6,100) is moderately priced against a Cowboys defense ranked 19th in quarterback aFPA and the Chargers have a respectable 24-point implied team total. However, Rivers hasn’t shown much recently as he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since October 1st and he hasn’t thrown for 3 touchdowns in any of his last six games. Given the dynamics of this slate; you’re better off looking at Keenum/Cousins or going the contrarian route with Dak.
Matthew Stafford ($7,700/$6,000) is a decent mid-range option but given the matchup against a sound Vikings defense (ninth in quarterback aFPA), I’d rather look elsewhere. The Vikings held Stafford to 209 pass yards with 0 touchdowns earlier in the season.
Case Keenum ($7,500/$5,300) is my favorite play after Kirk Cousins. I prefer Keenum on DraftKings where he projects as our top overall value. Rostering Keenum allows you to do just about anything you want at the other skill positions, while also gaining exposure to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. It’s a decent matchup as the Lions rank 18th in quarterback aFPA and the Vikings are road favorites with a 23.75-point implied team total.