DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 12

Nov 22, 2017

Here is my breakdown on all the DFS-relevant running backs on the Week 12 Thanksgiving slate and the main slate, including their upside, downside, and how we can find an edge at the position.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Thanksgiving Slate

Chalk

Melvin Gordon (8100/8400) has 8 targets and 27 rushing attempts from within the 20-yard line, which is good for a top-10 ranking in both categories at the position. Dallas has certainly felt the blow of not having linebacker Sean Lee and now ranks 25th in running back aFPA. The Chargers have a healthy 24-point implied team total and this game has the highest over/under of the slate, 48 points.
Samaje Perine (5000/7600) is much cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel and has a shot at being the highest-owned running back this week with Chris Thompson (leg) and Rob Kelley (ankle) both being placed on the IR. Perine has been efficient with his touches, averaging 0.42 PPR points per snap. He carries a lot of touchdown equity with the Redskins being 7.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 26 points versus the Giants, who rank 30th in running back aFPA. One thing to note is that the Redskins just signed Byron Marshall (3200/4900), who is expected to play on third downs due to his pass-catching ability.

Studs

With this being a three-game slate and Melvin Gordon expected to carry high ownership, we don't have a single stud to leverage in large-field tournaments.