DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 12

Nov 22, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Studs

Only three wide receivers are priced as studs on both sites this week and Antonio Brown is only on the main slate on FanDuel. Brown and Julio Jones have arguably the best matchups of the week, which should drive their ownership levels well above the field.

Antonio Brown ($9,600) projects as the top wide receiver value on FanDuel, despite being priced $1,300 higher than any other receiver on the main slate. The Steelers are projected to score over 28 points against a Packers defense ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers. No defense has allowed more 100-yard games to opposing wide receivers this season and Brown is the only receiver with more than three 100-yard games to his credit this season. The public will be high on Brown after his monster game on national television last week, but he did have three straight games with 5 or fewer receptions prior to Week 11.
Julio Jones ($7,800 FD/$7,700 DK) faces a Tampa Bay defense ranked last in wide receiver aFPA, allowing the most yards and receptions to opposing wide receivers this season. Only seven players have seen a higher target share than Jones this season and he’s seen a recent uptick in red zone volume and now has 11 targets inside the 20 this season. Still, Julio has only found the end zone once and Tampa Bay’s defense has been respectable in the red zone, allowing just 20% of pass attempts to be converted into scores.
A.J. Green ($8,300/$8,000) ranks fourth in the league in target share, but his 8.3 targets per game rank just 14th. The Bengals face a Browns defense that has allowed the fifth-most points per game this season, but Cleveland’s strength has been against wide receivers, ranking ninth in aFPA to the position. Green will be shadowed by Jason McCourty, who’s been among the best cornerbacks in terms of fantasy points allowed in coverage.