FanDuel Thanksgiving Slate Breakdown

Nov 22, 2017

On a short slate like Thanksgiving, it’s usually wise to favor GPPs and often avoid cash games altogether. With so few options available, there is usually a ton of overlap between lineups, which leads to much more variance—exactly what we are trying to avoid when grinding cash games. Because the Thanksgiving slate usually draws in a more casual player pool than a typical short slate, there may be some merit to dabbling in cash games, though I would still recommend keeping it to a minimum and favoring tournaments.

Vikings (-3) @ Lions; Over/Under 44.5

Passing Game

Case Keenum ($7,500) and Matthew Stafford ($7,700) have identical odds to hit both cash game and GPP value, but Keenum has a markedly better matchup—the Lions rank 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing quarterbacks while Minnesota ranks ninth against the position. While Keenum doesn’t stand out in any one category against the other quarterbacks on this slate, the Vikings skill position players dominate the value report and a team stack with Keenum could be a unique roster construction play that proves to be a slate-winner. Adam Thielen ($8,300) is the most expensive receiver on the slate, but still projects as a top-two value at his position. Stefon Diggs ($7,500) projects as a top-five value himself, but it’s Kyle Rudolph ($5,800) who could prove to be the best leverage play of the week, while most owners roster the tight ends in the Washington/New York game. Detroit ranks 24th in tight end aFPA and Rudolph is 1-of-6 tight ends to account for over a quarter of his team’s red zone targets.

On the other side of the ball, Golden Tate ($7,300) projects as the best value and is the lone Detroit pass-catcher I will be overweight on. Minnesota hasn’t allowed a single receiver to catch 10 balls or go over 100 yards all season, and their stingy secondary should force Stafford to favor shorter targets to Tate, who plays primarily out of the slot.