DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 13

Nov 30, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 13 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

This is an odd week as there are no teams with implied team totals that stand out above the rest. The Patriots and Chargers are sitting with implied team totals around the 28 point range, while seven teams are implied for 25-26.25 points. I don’t believe ownership in GPPs will be heavily concentrated on any certain quarterback due to this, but I could see Philip Rivers taking on the most cash game ownership.

Philip Rivers ($8,000/$7,000) and the Chargers boast the slate’s highest implied team total at 28.25 points against a Browns defense ranked 28th in quarterback aFPA. Rivers has put together three-straight games of 16 or more fantasy points and that comes with a game against the Jaguars. The Browns should provide little resistance as they have the sixth-lowest turnover rate this year. Rivers has been playing well this season with a 5.2% touchdown and 1.8% interception rate.
Tom Brady ($9,300/$7,800) and the Patriots have an implied team total just behind the Chargers at 28 points. The only trouble is Brady is super expensive, coming in $1,100 more expensive on FanDuel than the next closest quarterback and $800 more on DraftKings. It’s not an amazing spot as the Bills rank 11th in quarterback aFPA and the Patriots are on the road, but in his last five games against the Bills, Brady has averaged 23.45 fantasy points per game. Given the slate dynamics, Brady is better reserved for GPPs.
The last time Jared Goff ($7,900/$6,700) squared off against the Cardinals this season (in London) they won 33-0 and he put up 19.3 fantasy points. Since then, Goff has scored 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games with a 9.8 point performance in a tough road spot against the Vikings. He isn’t outrageously priced and the Cardinals rank 16th in quarterback aFPA. Goff’s floor could be solidified as the Rams rank first in neutral pace of play (Football Outsiders) this season and the Cardinals rank 12th, so this game could feature a high volume of plays for both sides.
Cam Newton ($8,100/$6,800) becomes more appealing if Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley miss this game because the Saints defense isn’t the same without them. The Saints’ defensive line is still exceptional, but they lost Alex Okafor, who graded as PFF’s 12th-best pass-rusher. Cam becomes less appealing if those corners return because it’s possible the Panthers would implement a run-heavy approach as the Saints allow 4.6 yards per carry (fourth-most). Devin Funchess (toe) also didn't practice on Wednesday, which is also something to monitor.