DraftKings Week 15 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

Dec 14, 2017

Saturday football is back, so this week's article will start out with a breakdown of the Saturday-only slate before getting into the main and primetime slate. In case you haven't been following along all season, note that the main slate breakdown is done in the context of exposure and roster construction, meaning that the recommended plays are those whom I believe owning more than the field will provide the biggest edge after taking salary and ownership into account.

Saturday-Only Slate

Passing Games

Chicago: Our value reports suggest diminishing returns from paying up at QB on this slate. That means Mitchell Trubisky ($4,600), who has gone 37-of-47 for 373 yards and 2 TDs over his past two games, has to be considered a viable option against a Lions defense ranked 28th in QB aFPA. Detroit’s pass defense has been most vulnerable over the middle, so I like the upside of rookie TE Adam Shaheen ($2,700), who has posted two 4-catch games with a TD in the past few weeks. Kendall Wright ($3,500) caught 10 passes last week against the similarly soft interior of Cincinnati and is also an option. Update (Dec. 16): Shaheen (chest) is not expected to play, making veteran Dion Sims ($2,500) a viable punt option, albeit one with not quite as much appeal as Shaheen. Daniel Brown ($2,500), a sub-230-pound, 96th percentile agility score athlete, will be in for increased snaps as well, making him playable in large-field GPPs.
Detroit: The Matthew Stafford ($6,400)-Marvin Jones ($6,200) stack could end being arbitrage on the Philip Rivers-Keenan Allen pairing; Jones has eclipsed 18 DraftKings points in five of his past eight games. Kenny Golladay ($3,400) played a season-high 85% of the snaps last week. Given the one-day-only format, Golladay’s superior share of air yards (22%) to Golden Tate (16%; $6,500) at a much lower cost makes the rookie the better GPP play. Eric Ebron ($3,200) has caught at least 4 passes in four straight games; he’s no worse of a play than Hunter Henry but costs $1,600 less.
L.A. Chargers: Coming off four straight 100-yard games, Keenan Allen ($8,400) is the top play on the slate against the Chiefs’ 30th-ranked defense in WR aFPA. Kansas City’s shaky pass defense that funnels action to wideouts also makes Tyrell Williams ($4,200) and Travis Benjamin ($3,500) more appealing than any other team’s secondary options—and more appealing than Hunter Henry ($4,800). Though Philip Rivers ($7,200) is the worst QB play on the slate in terms of value, he's the top play by raw points. I'd be sure to include at least one of Williams or Benjamin in Rivers lineups, as Rivers will likely need to hit a few big plays downfield and surpass the 300-yard mark to justify his salary.
Kansas City: The Chiefs’ matchup is the most daunting—I don’t feel good about Alex Smith ($5,900) versus the pass rush of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram or Tyreek Hill ($6,500) versus Casey Hayward—but Travis Kelce ($7,000) has scored 13+ DraftKings points in 9-of-13 games and is a solid option. Albert Wilson ($3,300) averages 6.6 targets over the past three weeks and has the best matchup among Kansas City pass catchers as he goes against rookie slot corner Desmond King.