Raybon's Review: DFS Lessons Learned in Week 14

Dec 13, 2017

Analyzing the prior week's results is one of the most valuable investments of your time as a DFS player. In this space, I will deconstruct the Week 14 winning lineups from FanDuel and DraftKings' biggest GPPs. I will also highlight other key takeaways from the past week's games and/or the season to date.

DraftKings Week 14 Millionaire Maker Winning Lineup Review

TwoGun took down the Week 14 Milli’ Maker by balancing the mega-chalk of Giovani Bernard with a bunch of contrarian plays that hit. Bernard’s presence was no surprise; he was our top-ranked value on the slate by a wide margin and also had our highest ownership projection. DeAndre Hopkins had the second-highest GPP odds among WRs. Melvin Gordon was one of seven RBs on the main slate with GPP odds of at least 10% (five of the other six hit as well, including Bernard, Todd Gurley, LeSean McCoy, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette, with Lamar Miller being the only whiff).

If you were among the 99.4% who didn’t own QB Brett Hundley and the 97.6% who didn’t own WR Davante Adams, how could you have landed on them?

Coming off a week where he failed to reach double-digit DraftKings points as chalk against the Buccaneers, Hundley saw negative recency bias drop his ownership below 1%. There were still reasons to be greedy while others were fearful, however, such as Hundley’s GPP leverage score of 3.73, which indicated his probability of hitting value was higher than what his projected ownership would otherwise suggest; the Browns’ ranking of 22nd in QB aFPA; and the correlation to the Browns passing game, which was expected to do well given that Josh Gordon was chalk.

Adams has a worrisome matchup against a Browns defense that has held opposing wide receivers to the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points and often features Jason McCourty shadowing the top wideout, but our GPP leverage score was able to pick Adams out of a crowd, as he had the highest of any WR $5,000 or above.

If you were among the 96.8% who didn’t own RB Leonard Fournette, how could you have landed on him?

The GPP leverage score also pinpointed Fournette, who had the highest score among all players $7,000 and above, and among all RBs over $4,500. Fournette had a difficult matchup against the Seahawks' second-ranked defense in RB aFPA, but high usage can offset a tough matchup, and Fournette was averaging over 20 touches per game. Fournette’s salary was also down $800 from the week prior and $1,600 from its Week 7 high.

If you were among the 95.0% who didn’t own WR Demaryius Thomas, how could you have landed on him?

Of the 27 WRs with a salary of $5,000 or above on the main slate, Thomas’ GPP leverage score was fourth-highest. He also had the highest GPP odds of any WR $5,000 or below. The Jets also posed a good matchup, having allowed the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers coming into last week.

If you were among the 95.1% who didn’t own TE Trey Burton, how could you have landed on him?

With Zach Ertz (concussion) unable to suit up despite conflicting stores that at one point suggested the contrary, Burton was a recommended play in our DraftKings slate breakdown. Tight end is a big part of the Eagles offense—they had targeted the position on 25% of attempts coming into Week 14, tied for sixth-most in the NFL—and Burton posted 12.1 DraftKings points when Ertz missed Week 9 against Denver.

If you were among the 98.0% who didn’t own the Broncos DST, how could you have landed on them?

In Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby, Denver arguably features the best cornerback unit in the NFL, making the team perfectly equipped to neutralize Jets wideouts Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse, who have emerged as the offense’s biggest strength. With Domata Peko (knee) back in the lineup providing a boost to what is still tied as the league's third-ranked run defense (89.5 yards per game allowed), Denver also had a positive outlook in that area against a Jets running game that was averaging only 3.49 yards per carry on the road coming into the game before compiling only 57 scoreless yards on 23 carries.