Raybon's Review: DFS Lessons Learned in Week 15

Dec 20, 2017

Analyzing the prior week's results is one of the most valuable investments of your time as a DFS player. In this space, I will deconstruct the Week 15 winning lineups from FanDuel and DraftKings' biggest GPPs. I will also highlight other key takeaways from the past week's games and/or the season to date.

DraftKings Week 15 Millionaire Maker Winning Lineup Review

JWest64’s winning lineup marked just the second time this season a TE was used in the FLEX position. Rostering two TEs at sub-7% ownership was just one of the ways JWest64 was able to differentiate a lineup that faded the 11 highest-owned players on the slate and used only three plays that received much attention during the week: Cam Newton, Marquise Goodwin, and Vikings DST. Newton was our top QB in both value and GPP odds, and faced a Packers defense ranked 29th in QB aFPA. Goodwin was tied for second in GPP odds among WRs $6,000 and under. The Vikings were the top value at DST and tied for second in GPP odds at the position.

If you were one of the 91.7% who didn’t own RB Todd Gurley, how could you have landed on him?

Gurley ranked second in DraftKings points per game coming into Week 15, and though Seattle ranked fourth in RB aFPA at the time, we also know that a heavy workload can offset a difficult matchup. We also knew Seattle’s defensive front was weakened due to the absence of K.J. Wright (concussion) and Bobby Wagner playing with a bum hamstring (against the better judgement of Earl Thomas).

If you were one of the 92.2% who didn’t own RB LeSean McCoy, how could you have landed on him?

McCoy has crushed as a home favorite throughout his Buffalo career, averaging 118.3 total yards and 0.95 TDs compared to 88 total yards and 0.38 TDs in all other situations. McCoy was tied for fifth in GPP odds among RBs and faced a Dolphins defense ranked 26th in RB aFPA.

If you were one of the 95.7% who didn’t own WR Keelan Cole, how could you have landed on him?

More often than not, when a cheap WR who is not his team’s No. 1 option shows up in a winning lineup, he’ll have fared well in two predictive indicators: (1) GPP leverage score, and (2) aFPA matchup. A GPP leverage score above 1.0 indicates that a player’s probability of hitting value is greater than what his projected ownership implies, and Cole’s was 1.66, one of the higher ones among WRs in his salary range. Cole also had aFPA on his side, as Houston was ranked 29th in WR aFPA. The undrafted rookie out of Kentucky Wesleyan also made strides in the box score lately, catching 6-of-6 targets for 148 yards and 2 TDs over his previous two games.

If you were one of the 94.7% who didn’t own WR Alshon Jeffery, how could you have landed on him?

Jeffery didn’t exactly smash—his 14.3 points fell short of even his cash game target score of 17.3—but he provided just enough at the pivotal middle salary range to allow the lineup’s six 25-point scorers to carry it to victory. Jeffery was tied for second in GPP odds among WRs under $6,000, and matched up with a Giants defense ranked 25th in aFPA coming in.

If you were one of the 95.9% who didn’t own TE Ben Watson, how could you have landed on him?

Because their defense is bereft of talent at linebacker and plays its safeties deep to prevent the big play, the Browns have been getting torched by TEs all season and came into Week 15 ranked 29th in TE aFPA. Watson was one of four TEs with a salary of $3,500 or more to have a GPP leverage score greater than 1.0. Hilariously, 39% of Watson’s yards, 33% of his catches, and 25% of his TDs this season have come in his two meetings with Cleveland.

If you were one of the 93.4% who didn’t own TE Greg Olsen, how could you have landed on him?

Despite coming off a catchless game where he was only targeted once, Olsen was tied for sixth among TEs in GPP odds, so a “be greedy when others are fearful” mentality could have landed you on him. In addition, Olsen’s quarterback, Cam Newton, was a chalk play, and we know that the QB-TE correlation is one of the strongest there is.