DFS Kicker & DST Analysis: Week 2

Sep 13, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the DSTs and kickers on the Week 2 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

The Raiders, Buccaneers, Chargers, Ravens, and Seahawks all project as the chalk-options for Week 2. For cash games, these five DSTs are likely the pool you want to stick to, as they give you five options all in different price ranges. The Chargers in particular give you plenty of roster flexibility at their price point on both sites. With five DSTs projected in various price ranges and no glaring must-plays, ownership between each of the five may be fairly spread out.

The upside for the Oakland Raiders ($5300/$3500) is they’re at home and set to face off against Jets team that is implied for just 15 points. The downside is that Oakland is very expensive, especially on FanDuel, which will cripple your exposure to the higher-priced guys we want. The Oakland defense also lacks talent as a whole; they gave up the most yards per play (6.1) and the seventh-most total yards (6,001) in the league last season.
The upside for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4500/$3200) is they are home favorites against a Bears team implied for 18.25 points. The Bucs ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate last season (7.1%), which could give the Bears offense trouble if the Bucs are able to put pressure on Mike Glennon. The downside is the Bucs have the sixth-lowest GPP Leverage Score among DSTs.
You’ll notice that a common theme with DSTs we gravitate to is that they are either home, favorites, or both. That theme continues with the Los Angeles Chargers ($4300/$2800), who are 4-point home favorites against the Dolphins. The downside to the Chargers is that Miami's offense tends to be run-heavy, which may limit San Diego's ability to force turnovers, even against a turnover-prone Jay Cutler.
The upside for the Baltimore Ravens ($4700/$3700) is they are at home against a Browns team implied for 16.75 points. The downside is the Ravens are very expensive on DraftKings, which may make it tough to get exposure to the higher-priced skill-position players we want, and could be a highest owned DST on FanDuel due to price.
The upside for the Seattle Seahawks ($5400/4000) is they will be at home against a 49ers team implied for 15.5 points, which is the second-lowest total on the slate. The downside is having to pay a premium for them, as they are the most expensive option on FanDuel and second-most expensive on DraftKings.