DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 5

Oct 05, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

Given the Steelers are the only team projected as the chalk for Week 5, it won’t be difficult to gain leverage on the field since we can assume we know where most of the ownership will be. They’ll be tougher to fit into your roster on DraftKings for $3,900 than they are on FanDuel for $4,800. Personally, I never have an issue fading a chalk defense. They all have a similar range of outcomes unless they happen to score a defensive touchdown. Given the price differences between the two sites, I’ll likely hedge the Steelers by rostering them in FanDuel cash and looking elsewhere on DraftKings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,800/$3,900) are probably in the best spot this week as they are 8.5-point favorites against a Jaguars offense implied for a slate-low 17.5 points. It also doesn’t hurt that the Steelers are playing some of the best defense in the league. The Steelers are allowing a league-low 22.9% of drives to end in an offensive touchdown, along with having the seventh-highest turnover rate and forcing the second-most sacks in the league (15.) The Steelers’ sack rate will give them a high floor against this Blake Bortles-led Jaguars offense. The downside is they have a low GPP Leverage Score, but it should be noted they have a solid 2.56 Leverage Score on DraftKings as people may hesitate to pay up for them.