DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 5

Oct 05, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 5 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

The two chalk quarterbacks on the main slate are featured in the same game due to the fact the neither have a superior defense, and it’s the main slate’s highest total game at 52.5, five points ahead of the next closest game total. Aaron Rodgers will be tougher to get to if you are trying to get exposure to LeVeon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott as Rodgers is $1,300 more expensive than Dak Prescott on DraftKings, and $1,800 more expensive on FanDuel. In cash games, there may be some risk in fading one or both of these players as they have a much more stable floor/ceiling relative to other quarterbacks.

Aaron Rodgers ($9,500/$8,100) is in a favorable spot with a 25.25 implied team total, and he has the highest odds of hitting his cash game target score. He also sports the highest floor and ceiling projection among quarterbacks on the main slate. The Cowboys also rank 22nd in quarterback aFPA. Rodgers is never a “bad” play, but you need to look at how your roster looks as a whole. Particularly on DraftKings, the quarterback position is devalued given that it is full PPR. Paying top-dollar for Rodgers will make it difficult to solidify your ceiling and floor at the running back or wide receiver position.
Dak Prescott ($7,700/$6,800) is my favorite quarterback play on the board in Week 6. The Cowboys are in a favorable spot as two-point home favorites with the highest implied team total on the main slate at 27.25 points. The Packers rank seventh in quarterback aFPA, but Dak has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks this season with no less than 17 DraftKings points in his first four outings, and that includes matchups with the Giants, Broncos, and Cardinals. A lot of people may be afraid of rostering Dak and Zeke together in cash games, but rostering a running back with his quarterback has a positive correlation, and it makes sense in this spot as the Cowboys have a high implied team total, along with being favorites.