DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 5

Oct 05, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

The most expensive tight ends figure to be the most popular plays in Week 5, but paying up at tight end will make it nearly impossible to roster a pair of high-volume running backs in great matchups, which looks to be the optimal lineup strategy, at least in cash games. Both chalk plays are the only two tight ends that are priced as studs on both sites.

Coming off of his second game of the season with at least 100 yards and a score, Travis Kelce is projected as a top-two value at his position on FanDuel, where salaries allow you to be flexible in your roster construction techniques. With Kelce’s big games, though, have come a 40-yard game in Week 1 and a 1-catch, 1-yard performance in Week 3. Tight ends are inherently volatile, but paying up at the position should offer more consistency than that. Kansas City is just a one-point favorite and Houston ranks in the top 10 against tight ends, when adjusted for strength of schedule (aFPA).
Zach Ertz is the top-projected FanDuel value of the week but he’s expected to be the most popular play at his position on DraftKings. Ertz is averaging 9 targets per game, while no other player at his position is averaging over 7.5. The obvious downfall to rostering Ertz on DraftKings is his price—no other tight end is priced over $5,000 and Ertz costs $1,300 more than the TE2. Arizona ranks seventh in tight end aFPA, but Ertz already has at least 80 yards in two games against defenses ranked in the top 10 against the position.