DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 6

Oct 12, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

This is a first for me, as there are nine defenses projected to be the highest-owned defenses on the slate. Because there are so many defenses projected for high ownership, there won’t be much risk in fading a particular one. I think a viable approach is to construct your roster and plug in whichever defense fits into your roster from this chalk section.

Sadly, once again, great plays aren’t available on DraftKings with Sunday night not a part of the main slate. The Denver Broncos ($5,400) are available on FanDuel, however. Their $5,400 price tag is expensive for a defense, but they are massive home favorites, and the Giants are implied for just 14.25 points. The Giants rank 24th in defense aFPA. If you can fit Denver in, they would be my top defense on the slate; however, I'm not one to sacrifice skill positions in order to roster a defense.
The Houston Texans ($5,400/$3,900) are at home, squaring off against a Browns offense implied for 18.25 points. It’s not ideal the Texans just lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, but the Browns offense is putrid, averaging 15.4 points per game, sporting the second-lowest scoring rate and the highest turnover rate among offenses. It’s also a boost they rank 30th in defensive aFPA.
The Baltimore Ravens ($4,900/$3,700) get to take on rookie Mitch Trubisky, who just struggled in Chicago in his first start of his career. He now heads on the road to take on an even tougher defense. The Bears have the second-lowest total on the slate at 16.5 points and they rank 29th in defensive aFPA.
The Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,900/$3,600) are 2.5-point home favorites against the Rams. While we know they are No. 1 against the pass, they rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game. However, it’s hard to envision the Rams moving the ball with a ton of success on the road against this stout defense. Jacksonville boasts the league’s highest turnover rate, which should bolster their floor.
The Atlanta Falcons ($5,000/$3,500) take on an inept Miami team averaging 10.5 points per game this season. The Dolphins are currently implied for 17.25 points—the third-lowest total on the slate. Miami also ranks 31st in defensive aFPA.
Washington ($4,700/$3,400) is coming off the bye to take on a 49ers team that is coming off a crushing overtime loss against the Colts. The 49ers rank 20th in defensive aFPA. They’re also implied for 18.5 points, the fifth-lowest total on the slate.
The New England Patriots ($4,600/$3,300) may be my least favorite chalk defense as they are on the road and they’re simply not a very good defense overall. They rank 31st in points allowed, 32nd in yards allowed, 32nd in yards per play, and tied for 32nd in passing touchdowns. While the Jets are implied for 19 points, they only rank 21st in defensive aFPA.
The Kansas City Chiefs ($4,800/$3,200) project as a higher owned defense because of Pittsburgh's struggles on offense. We are all aware of the Steelers home/road splits, but the Chiefs project as a bottom-four value in our value reports. The Steelers have one of the higher implied team totals (21 points) in comparison to the opponents the other defenses are facing.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,400/$2,600) project as the cheapest chalk defense on the slate. Their defense isn’t as good as the others from a talent standpoint, and they have been riddled with injuries the last few weeks. However, the Cardinals rank 27th in defensive aFPA, but Arizona is also implied for 21.75 points, and they’re at home, which adds more risk to rostering the Buccaneers.