DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 7

Oct 19, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 7 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

Week 7 is set up to be a fun week at the quarterback position because there are multiple ways to go. Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and Drew Brees are projected to be the highest-owned options on the slate, and they also happen to quarterback the top three teams regarding implied team totals. On FanDuel, it’s not hard to fit in Brady. He may garner the most ownership as he will be the featured Sunday night hammer. On DraftKings, ownership may be more spread out where the Sunday night game is not featured on the main slate. If not paying up for the likes of Dak or Brees, I’d prefer to go down to the $5,000 value range.

With FanDuel’s loose pricing, Tom Brady ($9,200) isn’t that difficult to fit into lineups. The Patriots have the highest team total on the slate at 29.25 points, and the Falcons rank 22nd in quarterback aFPA. The Patriots’ strengths align with the Falcons’ weakness as New England has the second-highest scoring rate among offenses, with 46.4% of their drives resulting in a score, while the Falcons’ defense has allowed opposing offenses to score at the fifth-highest rate this season. If you have the salary, you could hedge Brady with Stephen Gostkowski on your FanDuel teams.
Dak Prescott ($8,400/$7,300) and the Cowboys have the third-highest implied team total at 26.25 points, and the 49ers rank 24th in quarterback aFPA. The 49ers have struggled against the pass as they’re allowing 277 passing yards per game and allowing offenses to score at the third-highest rate this year. Prescott hasn’t scored any less than 17 fantasy points in a game this season, and he’s scored 22+ fantasy points in his last three games.
Drew Brees ($8,300/$7,600) had some unique game flow last week as the Saints scored an abundance of defensive touchdowns. He takes on a battered Green Bay defense that is very weak in the secondary. The Saints are sporting the slate’s second-highest total at 26.75 points. Although, Brees hasn’t been very efficient this season, ranking just 15th in quarterback efficiency. Brees has historically also struggled on the road throughout his career, particularly when he is outside.