DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 8

Oct 26, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

The Bengals project to be the highest-owned defense as they face the Colts in Week 8—their upside and floor are tremendous. It’s not often I try and force a high-priced defense into my lineup, but in cash games, I’ll be looking to fit them in as I think they boast the highest floor among all defenses. There may be some risk in fading the Bengals because if they outperform their expectations, you’ll be in a hole for cash games. They at least make for a good block play.

The Cincinnati Bengals ($4,800/$3,600) have the advantage of facing a Colts team ranked 30th in defensive aFPA. Even though the Bengals are priced as the second-most expensive defense on DraftKings’ main slate, they still stand out as the second-best value. They also project as the second-best value on FanDuel. Playing at home, it’s difficult to see the Colts forcing a ton of points in this one as they’re implied for just 15.5 points. The Bengals opened as 8.5-point favorites and have since moved to 10.5-point favorites.