DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 9

Nov 02, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

There is no shortage of defenses to choose from in Week 9. The Eagles, Jaguars, and Cardinals all project to be the highest-owned defenses, depending on what site you’re playing on. Given there are plenty of chalk options to choose from, there isn’t as much risk in fading any single defense. If you can peg where the most ownership will be, it should be easy to gain leverage on the field in tournaments.

The Philadelphia Eagles ($5,200/$3,300) draw one of the most beneficial matchups against an inept Broncos offense ranked 32nd in defensive aFPA. As 7.5-point underdogs, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Eagles to generate sacks or turnovers. The Broncos recently announced Brock Osweiler as their starter after Trevor Siemian was sporting a higher interception rate than touchdown rate. Currently, the Broncos are implied for a team total of just 17.75 points, tied with the Bengals for the lowest total on the slate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,300/$3,800) are throttling opposing offenses this season and now they take on a Bengals offense who couldn’t take advantage of possibly one of the worst defenses in the league in Week 8. The Jaguars are allowing opponents to score on just 24.1% of their drives and are forcing a turnover on 18.4% of enemy drives, both marks are a league-best. This stat pairs well with the Bengals’ bottom-five scoring and turnover rate. Cincinnati is implied for 17.75 points, tied for the lowest on the slate.
The Arizona Cardinals ($4,900/$3,500) are the least appealing of the chalk options since they are on the road, but they draw an amazing matchup against C.J. Beathard, who has scored just 2 offensive touchdowns in the last two games. The 49ers are implied for 18.25 points and rank 24th in defensive aFPA.