DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 12
Week 12 of the Air Yards Buy-Low Model is here. Last week the model identified the top WR (T.Y. Hilton) and the TE (Jordan Reed) plays on the main slate.
For new readers, the Buy-Low Model looks at players who have received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards in the previous three weeks and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The list highlights players who are strong candidates to have a performance spike in the near future.
This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.60, lower than last week, but still an extremely solid number.
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In GPPs you need to look beyond the median projections and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart and put up crooked numbers. Here is a list of receivers and tight ends who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
| Name | Predicted FP | Actual FP | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 16.7 | 11.5 | -5.3 |
| Keke Coutee | 14.3 | 12.7 | -1.6 |
| James White | 13.7 | 10.7 | -3.0 |
| Danny Amendola | 13.2 | 12.0 | -1.3 |
| Willie Snead | 12.3 | 11.5 | -0.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.7 | 10.3 | -1.4 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10.3 | 9.2 | -1.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 9.9 | 9.8 | -0.2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 9.6 | 8.1 | -1.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | 9.3 | 8.2 | -1.1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 8.8 | 6.0 | -2.9 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8.8 | 7.6 | -1.2 |
| Devin Funchess | 8.5 | 6.8 | -1.7 |
| Jared Cook | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
| Robby Anderson | 8.2 | 7.2 | -1.0 |
| David Moore | 8.1 | 5.3 | -2.8 |
| Cole Beasley | 8.1 | 7.5 | -0.6 |
| DeVante Parker | 8.0 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 8.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| Golden Tate | 8.0 | 6.9 | -1.2 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 7.7 | 5.8 | -1.9 |
| Michael Gallup | 7.5 | 5.2 | -2.4 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 7.2 | 4.3 | -2.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 7.1 | 6.7 | -0.5 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 7.1 | 6.4 | -0.7 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 7.0 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
Key Takeaways
- Melvin Gordon ($8,600 DK/$8,900 FD) makes the Buy-Low list for the first time ever. Is he really a buy low at $8600 on DK? Sure. The signal here is simply that Gordon has some passing-game upside based on his recent volume. I see no reason to disagree with the model.
- James White ($7,400 DK/$7,400 FD) is the second RB on this list, and also near the top. His inclusion makes more sense intuitively, and his price is reasonable on both major DFS sites. Depending on projected ownership he could be a strong tournament play.
- Willie Snead ($4,400 DK/$5,300 FD) put up reasonable numbers in a game where Lamar Jackson ran 27 times. It's a near lock that the Ravens passing offense will look more like a normal NFL team next week, whether Jackson is under center or Joe Flacco returns. Snead is cheap and everyone will be off of him, making him an ideal tournament play.
- Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK/$6,100 FD) remains undervalued and underappreciated. He is the focal point of a passing offense (0.56 WOPR, nearly double that of second place Callaway) that is finally finding its feet as OC Freddie Kitchen and Baker Mayfield are clicking. Mayfield recently turned in one of the most efficient passing performances ever for a rookie QB, completing 17 of 20 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns and no interceptions. Eventually, Landry will be the beneficiary of that kind of play, perhaps even this Sunday against the Bengals.
- REDACTED Benjamin remains off the list, for great justice.
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
