Primetime DFS Slate Breakdown: Week 14

Dec 07, 2018

Our Week 14 primetime slate brings us an offense that is scoring an average of 35 points per game this year vs a defense that ranks well on paper, but actually gives us a little leeway in regards to aFPA metrics. Our Monday Night Football matchup has an over/under of just 45 points, but as usual, there are still a few spots to leverage the field.

Passing Games

Bears

Mitchell Trubisky ($7,800 FD/$5,700 DK) is set to return vs the Rams who rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy poiints allowed (aFPA) to the quarterback postion, but who did also just get Aqib Talib back which should strengthen the defense up a bit. Chicago's target distribution is all over the place this year, with four players having greater than a 14 percent market share of targets but no one having more than 20 percent. Allen Robinson ($6,700 FD/$5,300 DK) does lead the pack with a 28 percent market share of air yards while Taylor Gabriel ($5,100 FD/$4,100 DK) is not only the fourth buy-low target in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model, he is also second on the team with a 25 percent market share of air yards. Trey Burton ($5,800 FD/$3,900 DK) is logging a decent amount of snaps which sit at 81 percent on the season but has a weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) of just 0.35. I do want to highlight that over the past eight weeks, he leads all tight ends in routes ran with 264. He put up a goose egg last week but with the Rams ranking 23rd in aFPA to tight ends, he makes for a great tournament play.