DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 17
This last list will wrap up the regular season for the buy low model, but I will continue to run it into at least the first round of the playoffs. Week 17 is super high variance all around, and you'll need to navigate all sorts of non-standard narratives. For the best help with these situations be sure to check out Jennifer Eakins' So Who's Motivated? article.
For new readers, the Buy-Low Model looks at players who have received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards in the previous three weeks and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The list highlights players who are strong candidates to have a performance spike in the near future.
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In GPPs you need to look beyond the median projections and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart and put up crooked numbers. Here is a list of receivers and tight ends who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.40 and is trained on just one game, Week 17.
| Player | Predicted FP | Actual FP | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 22.6 | 21 | -1.6 |
| George Kittle | 19.6 | 19.2 | -0.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | 14.6 | 14 | -0.6 |
| Dede Westbrook | 14.6 | 12.8 | -1.8 |
| Damien Williams | 14.5 | 13.9 | -0.6 |
| Jamison Crowder | 13.1 | 12.7 | -0.4 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 12.9 | 12.3 | -0.6 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 12.8 | 12.2 | -0.7 |
| Charcandrick West | 12.3 | 11.7 | -0.6 |
| Allen Robinson | 12 | 10.7 | -1.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11.3 | 10.5 | -0.9 |
| Adam Humphries | 11.2 | 10.8 | -0.4 |
| Scott Simonson | 11.1 | 10.6 | -0.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.7 | 7.2 | -3.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 10.6 | 9.2 | -1.4 |
| David Johnson | 10.5 | 9.7 | -0.8 |
| David Njoku | 10.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 |
| Kenyan Drake | 9.2 | 8.5 | -0.7 |
| Elijah McGuire | 9.2 | 8.4 | -0.8 |
| Dalvin Cook | 9.2 | 8.5 | -0.7 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 8.8 | 7.3 | -1.5 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 8.6 | 7.5 | -1.1 |
| Vance McDonald | 8.4 | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| John Ross | 8.2 | 6 | -2.2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 8.2 | 7.4 | -0.8 |
| Justin Jackson | 8.2 | 7.2 | -1 |
| Cameron Brate | 8 | 6.6 | -1.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 7.9 | -0.2 |
| Cole Beasley | 7.8 | 7.3 | -0.4 |
| Russell Shepard | 7.8 | 6.5 | -1.3 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7.8 | 7.3 | -0.6 |
| D.J. Moore | 7.2 | 6.3 | -0.9 |
| Dion Lewis | 7.1 | 5.9 | -1.2 |
| Matt Breida | 7.1 | 5.6 | -1.5 |
Key Takeaways
- Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD) will probably be limited, making him a tough buy low. Perhaps throw him in a couple lineups just in case, just to get the differentiation from the field if he does produce.
- Amari Cooper ($7,200 DK/$6,700 FD) is in a somewhat similar but slightly better situation. It's less sure that the Cowboys will rest him, but it's best to look elsewhere for the majority of your builds. I'd still want to have him in a few lineups though, especially on FD where he is more affordable.
- There are a lot of Chiefs on this list. Tyreek Hill ($8,400 DK/$7,800 FD) makes an appearance for the third straight week and the Chiefs can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they beat Oakland. Stacking lineups with Hill and a mix of Damien Williams and Charcandrick West looks like a solid process play.
- Jamison Crowder ($4,800 DK/$5,600 FD) is cheap, will be very low owned, and everyone in Washington has to feel a little pressure to finish strong. I like the o-line vs. d-line matchup in this game as well, so there are a couple of objective indicators pointing towards Crowder being a difference maker in Week 17.
- I have no idea why Scott Simonson ($2,500 DK/$4,100FD) is on the list. It's probably broken.
Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images.
