6 Quarterback SOS Beneficiaries & Ideal Late-Round Pairings

Jul 15, 2019

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The quarterback position has typically ‘felt’ deep. Regardless of your approach to the position, there have been players at ADP to serve your needs. The 2019 season is no different. If anything, it’s even better in this regard. The early to middle rounds is still a haven for the elite veterans while the later rounds are like taking a walk down Narrative Street.

“Tell me the story of how the lackluster college coach and rookie QB took over the NFL with the Air Raid.”

“Listen to the tale of the 2018 first-round quarterback who was considered a poor passer but was surrounded by high-end receiving prospects that elevated his game.”

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Perennial QB1’s will always hold our attention. Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, and Deshaun Watson will always hold our attention, but let’s look at the guys outside of the top 12.

QBs 13-24 by 4for4 Rankings
2019 Rank	Name	2018 Points Per Start
13	Philip Rivers	17.8
14	Dak Prescott	17.9
15	Cam Newton	20.2
16	Ben Roethlisberger	21.3
17	Lamar Jackson	19.7
18	Mitch Trubisky	18.8
19	Tom Brady	17.5
20	Josh Allen	18.9
21	Kirk Cousins	17.6
22	Jimmy Garoppolo	16
23	Sam Darnold	13
24	Andy Dalton	15.9

Past performance isn’t necessarily predictive, but it does give us a sense of floor and ceiling. Range of outcomes. Combining that with the right opponent only increases the chance of accessing that ceiling play. That’s quarterback streaming.

Using 4for4's aFPA tool, we can quickly find the Top-10 defenses to target for quarterbacks. Those teams are the Raiders, Saints, Bengals, Patriots, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jets, Texans, Dolphins, and Chiefs. But remember, this is based on last year’s games. The Falcons had five defensive starters with seasons cut short by injury. Cincinnati had seven defensive players go on injured reserve. Poor defensive performances aren’t solely due to ineptitude. Some have drastically improved through the draft. Top defensive prospect, Quinnen Williams, was taken by the New York Jets and paired with CJ Mosely from Baltimore. There’s some risk in targeting these defenses, but the overall strategy bears a minimal risk.

Manageable risk comes in when you draft your quarterback. The 10^th round was used as a cutoff for identifying the mid to late-round quarterbacks typically drafted. If you couple the upside from targeting the weaker defenses with the low risk of a mid to late quarterback, 4for4's Strength of Schedule by Position highlights viable quarterback pairs you can use throughout the season. A list of the greatest beneficiaries of Strength of Schedule along with the most favorable pairings for 2019 is shown below.

SOS Beneficiaries

Nick Foles, Jaguars

Foles is the perfect example of a streaming quarterback candidate. Late ADP. Offensive uncertainty. Week-winning upside. He’s had two of his eight starts result in a QB1 performance over the last two seasons. In four others, he’s posted a viable floor (average 13.9 FPG). Admittedly, switching from Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz to Dede Westbrook and Marqise Lee is a downgrade, but the opportunity presented by the defensive matchups should mitigate the risk.

Nick Foles has the most positive matchups when filtering by opponent aFPA (7). And that’s just during the fantasy regular season. His playoff matchups are equally enticing with Oakland allowing 18.4 to QBs and Atlanta's 19.4 aFPA in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. Likely to be found on your waiver wire in standard leagues, he can be added after the season begins. Jacksonville’s offensive line was near the bottom in pass protection (27^th) throughout 2018. Their additions will provide some help, but the optimal strategy is to let the season play out and grab Foles off the wire when needed.