DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 14

Dec 05, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players To Be Overweight On

QB Sam Darnold ($7,700 FD/$6,000 DK) vs. Dolphins

Leverage scores suggest being slightly underweight on Darnold relative to his median ownership projection but I expect his ownership in large-filed contests to be closer to the 5% floor projection. There are simply too many quarterbacks in good spots and the math says there will be quite a few signal-callers closer to their floor than their ceiling ownership this week. Week 13 marked the eighth time a quarterback has exceeded 20 fantasy points against the Dolphins and Darnold has shown he has a GPP-winning ceiling. New York’s 25 implied point total is their highest of the season. Rostering Darnold in 10%-15% of lineups should easily double up the field.