DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 2

Sep 12, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,600 FD/$5,800 DK) vs. Seahawks

The Steelers had about as bad of a start to the season as possible which should lead to relatively low ownership for their offense across the board despite being favored at home with a respectable implied point total of 25. Seattle got lit up for over 400 yards by the Bengals in Week 1—a game where Cincinnati threw 79% of the time, even though the score was within a touchdown from beginning to end. The Steelers were the most pass-heavy team in neutral situations last season and if last week is any indication, that’s the best way to attack this Seattle defense. Pittsburgh’s shaky offensive line play does give Ben a scary floor but we’ve already seen the upside that can be had against the Seahawks. Roethlisberger is a natural pivot off of some of the most popular plays of the week on both sites. With projected ownership below 5%, it won’t take much to be overweight on Big Ben.