DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 7

Oct 17, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Deshaun Watson ($8,300 FD/$7,000 DK) @ Colts

With similarly-priced quarterbacks in better matchups and higher-scoring games, Watson should draw moderate ownership numbers despite scoring at least 25 FanDuel points in three of his last four weeks. From a raw fantasy point perspective, the Colts have been an average defense against the pass but they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per pass attempt and struggle against the deep ball. As slight underdogs, the Texans are projected to score 23 points but a couple of big plays could easily put them at or above their 27 point-per-game average. With so many good quarterback plays this week, no one at the position should exceed 15% ownership, so having Watson in one of five lineups should put you well overweight on the field.