NFL DFS Week 9 Early-Only Slate Breakdown

Nov 02, 2019

Steven Ryan/Getty Images

Here I will be breaking down the Week 8 early slate and discussing my general strategy for both cash games and tournaments.

Cash Game Strategy

My cash game strategy is pretty similar every week. I first will look to lock in three workhorse running backs, although that's not always the easiest thing to do. Ideally, we want running backs on teams expected to be winning, playing at home and that will get the high-value touches. After that, I want to look for receivers that are cheaper but getting heavy volume that we can count on. What differentiates my process from most is that while I obviously want to chase targets, I tend to favor receivers that are more big-play threats. Some may view this as unnecessarily adding variance but because my lineups are so reliant on the floors of my running backs I look for the receivers to raise my ceiling in case of an injury. There's nothing worse than knowing your lineups are sunk early because of one your high-priced backs is out for the game after one quarter. At quarterback, I look for a value play with a high projected point total and a positive environment, which generally means being a home favorite. There are times when paying up for security at quarterback makes sense but it shouldn't really be plan A. Lastly at tight end, I hardly ever look to pay up due to their variance. If I can fit in an elite tight end then I'm not going to avoid it but I don't view the position as a core piece of my cash lineups. Instead, I'm looking to chase cheap targets and/or touchdown upside playing on teams with a high scoring total.

No strategy is flawless but these are the steps I take in my own process. Now let's dig into this week's picks.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($7,700 FD/$6,500 DK)

Allen is the top projected value play for FanDuel on the slate.
The Redskins are allowing the seventh-most passing touchdowns per game.

Matt Moore ($6,500 FD/$4,800 DK)

Moore is the top projected value play for DraftKings on the slate
The Vikings are allowing the 8th fewest passing yards per game but have allowed the 12th-most over their last three games.
The Chiefs are averaging 37 passing attempts per game (eighth-most). They attempted 36 in Moore's 1st start.