3 Player Draft Specials to Bet: Player to be Drafted First

With most major sports halted across the globe due to the coronavirus, the NFL has decided to press on the Draft. Now sitting in the spotlight, DraftKings continues to release NFL Draft props earlier than expected. With the NFL Draft still two weeks away, a potential edge appears for those with intimate knowledge of these players and teams. With that said, here are a few draft props that stand out on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Jalen Hurts (+130) Drafted Before Jake Fromm

A slow riser throughout the NFL Draft process, Jalen Hurts turned in an average Senior Bowl before catching the eye of some draftniks. With the success stories of Lamar Jackson and even Josh Allen, NFL front offices have reportedly softened to the idea of drafting a dual-threat signal-caller. In this specific player prop, Jalen Hurts brings +130 odds to come off the board before Georgia’s Jake Fromm.

A graduate transfer, Hurts made his home at Oklahoma after spending three seasons at Alabama. While most know Hurts for rushing for 1,298 yards and 20 touchdowns, he also showed improvement with his arm. His 89.7 College QBR and 11.3 yards per attempt ranked in the 95^th and 98^th percentile, respectively. Hurts also completed 69.7% of his passes in his final season at Oklahoma, showing true growth as a passer.

For the sake of comparison, Jake Fromm offers nothing athletically. Fromm notched a 5.01 40-yard dash and negative rushing yards in his final two seasons at Georgia. Similarly, Fromm’s 80.9 College QBR and 8.2 yards per attempt fell short of Hurts’ figures. Making matters worse, 25.4% of Fromm’s passer charted as uncatchable.

Fromm not only sits behind Hurts on most draft big boards, but rumors continue to swirl around Hurts potentially climbing into an early day two pick. Getting Hurts with +130 odds here makes all the sense in the world.

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Josh Jones (+104) Drafted Before Austin Jackson

Another mispriced player prop, picking Houston’s Josh Jones ahead of USC’s Austin Jackson in the NFL Draft brings +104 odds. Already ahead of Jackson on many draft boards, Jones provides the more complete package at the tackle position. While Jones may lack the name recognition, his NFL Draft prop provides solid odds here.

A three-year starter at Houston, Josh Jones allowed only 18 total pressures throughout his college career. Improving each season, Jones allowed only a single sack and three quarterback hurries throughout 2019. Standing 6'5", 319 pounds, Jones also provides enough size to remain at the left tackle position in the NFL. Positively, Jones showed the ability to run block, solidifying himself as a day one prospect.

Conversely, Jackson arrived as USC as a heralded five-star recruit. After playing a rotational role as a freshman, Jackson started in 2018 and allowed 14 quarterback pressures. While that warranted a top-34 grade from Pro Football Focus, Jackson never improved as a senior. While Jackson stands 6'4", 322 pounds, he remains a project in his on-field development.

While there remains a gap in competition between Houston and USC, Jones looks like a more complete prospect. With many NFL Draft boards reflecting this, landing Josh Jones at +104 odds to come off the board before Austin Jackson looks like a steal.

Kenneth Murray (-125) Drafted Before Patrick Queen

Perhaps the most even bet on this list, DraftKings currently lists Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray as a -125 favorite to come off the board ahead of LSU’s Patrick Queen. While the odds skew in Queen’s favor, the likelihood of being the first player drafted remains with Murray.

Starting since his true freshman season in 2017, Murray improved drastically throughout his career. In 2019, Murray finished with 78 tackles, while missing only 13. Importantly, Murray improved as a coverage defender, while showing immense athleticism. Standing 6'3" and weighing 241 pounds, Murray’s 4.52 40-yard dash gave him a 94^th-percentile speed score. Displaying the ability to stay on the field for all three downs, Murray likely earned himself a day one selection.

On the other side of this bet, Queen also displayed elite athleticism. Queen notched a 4.50 40-yard dash, but checked in at just 6'0", 229 pounds. Unlike Murray, those size limitations showed up for Queen at LSU. Queen did not start early in his career and failed to even start the first three games of the 2019 season. Head coach Ed Orgeron cited struggles against the run for that decision and that showed up in his 13 missed tackles. However, once asserted into the starting lineup, Queen excelled in pass defense. He allowed just 24 receptions on 33 targets, putting him in the first-round conversation for 2020.

Even having to lay extra juice in this situation, Murray still appears the favorite to come off the board first in the 2020 NFL Draft. While both possess elite athleticism, Murray’s early production and continued success give him the trump card on Draft day.

Pick Summary

Note: All advice in this article is based on odds available on the date of publishing.