Can Henry Ruggs Quench the Raiders' Need for Speed?

The Raiders drafted dynamic Alabama receiver Henry Ruggs No. 12 overall in this year’s NFL Draft. Given the franchise’s history, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock prioritized the wide receiver with the fastest 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. The duo overlooked other receivers with more comprehensive college careers like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, or Jerry Jeudy.

The selection of Ruggs does give the Raiders the explosive player they desired a season ago when the team traded for unhinged receiver Antonio Brown only to release him before he ever played a game for the franchise. Ruggs is the type of receiver Al Davis, principal owner and general manager of the Raiders for 39 years, would have craved. Do you remember when he drafted receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh pick in the 2009 draft? This decision was ridiculed by everyone. The good news is that Ruggs is more than just a 40 time. This article will discuss his collegiate statistical body of work and fantasy outlook in Las Vegas.

Henry Ruggs’s Statistical Body of Work

Ruggs was a former five-star high school recruit from Robert E. Lee High School in Montgomery, Alabama who was the ultimate all-purpose threat accumulating yards as a receiver, runner, and passer. He was also a star athlete who broke the Class 7A state record in the 100-meter dash. Ruggs dealt with some adversity prior to coming to the University of Alabama. His best friend Roderic Scott was killed in a one-car accident while driving to attend a basketball game in the area. Ruggs raises three fingers in the air to honor his friend whenever he scores a touchdown. Scott pushed him to be the best and Ruggs delivered with the Crimson Tide.

Ruggs ranks third on Alabama’s career touchdown receptions list with 24—Jeudy (26) and Amari Cooper (31) are the only Crimson Tide receivers with more. Ruggs also averaged 17.5 yards per reception across his three seasons with the Crimson Tide which ranks sixth in school history (minimum 50 receptions). He is underrated because he’s only had 86 receptions for 1,481 receiving over the last two seasons. Ruggs accomplished those numbers on an Alabama offense that featured a plethora of standout receivers including Jeudy, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle.

He was very efficient and the quarterbacks who targeted Ruggs were blessed with a passer rating of 151.4 according to Pro Football Focus. Ruggs is only the fourth Crimson Tide receiver taken in the first round of the last 10 drafts before 2020. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper were the other three. Ruggs will have an opportunity with the Raiders to operate as the alpha receiver with the supporting cast built around him. Let’s walk through his fantasy outlook with the Raiders in 2020.

How Henry Ruggs Fits with the Raiders

Ruggs joins a Raiders offense that has receivers Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, and tight end Darren Waller. Waller led this group with 1,145 receiving yards followed by Williams with 651. Williams is better suited as a No. 2 or 3 option in the passing game and struggled with foot injuries last season. Slot receiver Renfrow led the way with 49 receptions. The Raiders wide receivers ranked 30th in the NFL in receptions (145) and 29th in receiving yards. Quarterback Derek Carr finished seventh last season with a true passer rating of 106. This quarterback rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Carr’s rating was higher than Patrick Mahomes (105.7), Dak Prescott (98.6), Aaron Rodgers (97.3), and Deshaun Watson (95).

The biggest area of opportunity for the Raiders quarterback in 2020 is in the area of downfield passing. Carr ranked 25th in pass attempts greater than 20 yards with 47 attempts and only completed 36.2% of them. The Raiders also acquired Nelson Agholor in free agency and drafted the University of South Carolina receiver Bryan Edwards in the third round of this year’s draft. The reality is that the team has a major void at the No. 1 receiver spot entering 2020 which they drafted Ruggs to fill. He is essentially the Raiders' version of Tyreek Hill and has all the tools to make an immediate impact from a fantasy perspective.

Henry Ruggs won’t waste a second becoming a big threat in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/vOr8FJrs2f

— AJ Spurr (@SpurrFM) April 11, 2020

Ruggs can be used as a horizontal and vertical field stretcher anywhere on the football field. He has the athleticism to score a touchdown anytime he touches the football. It will be very challenging for coordinators to defend the Raiders’ passing and running game with the skill position players they have. Ruggs and Edwards, who is one of my favorite dynasty sleepers, should help improve the Raiders’ passing offense and Carr’s fantasy outlook. The Raiders quarterback can be viewed as a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside in certain matchups this season. Do you see how huge of an opportunity Ruggs has in front of him? But I’d be remiss in discussing Ruggs’s immense upside if I didn’t mention the success rate of receivers selected in the first round.

It is very difficult for NFL General Managers to select wide receivers in the draft. The position is very volatile, and not every elite talent turns into a Hall of Famer. Only 49% of the wide receivers drafted from 2000 to 2017 ever hit 1,000 receiving yards in an NFL season. Only 30% of them have had two or more. Rookie wide receivers can be hit or miss for fantasy purposes, but Ruggs is being set up perfectly for a solid debut season. You can view him as a high-end WR4 with upside this season with a few WR1 weeks along the way.

Bottom Line

• Ruggs is an upside option in redraft and could easily outperform his current average draft position. He has all the tools needed to succeed on the NFL level and will only get better with more opportunities as the Raiders No. 1 receiving option.
• From a dynasty perspective, Ruggs is an excellent target as early as the middle of the first round in rookie drafts. The only wide receivers I’d take ahead of him are CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and Jalen Reagor