What to Know About Joe Burrow for 2020 and Beyond

It shouldn’t have come as a surprise that the Bengals selected former LSU quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Burrow No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He will begin his career as the starter in Cincinnati after the franchise officially released Andy Dalton. Burrow is coming off a breathtaking season with Louisiana State head coach Ed Orgeron which culminated with the university’s fourth national championship. The last time the Bengals drafted a quarterback No. 1 overall was back in 2003 when they selected Carson Palmer. Despite what you may think of Dalton, he had success under center with the franchise even finishing as the fantasy QB5 in 2013.

A look at Andy Dalton's nine years in Cincinnati:

- Led the team to five playoff appearances

- 133 starts

-- 62% completion

-- 31,594 yards, 204 TDs (franchise record), 118 INTs

-- 3 Pro Bowl appearances

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) April 30, 2020

The Bengals conducted extensive due diligence on Burrow during the predraft process. This included meeting him in person at the NFL Combine and a steady stream of communication with head coach Zac Taylor leading up to the draft. Cincinnati even exhausted all of their screen time with Burrow discussing football and evaluating him since the middle of March. The Bengals left little to the imagination of NFL fans of who they going to select No. 1 overall.

Bengals president Mike Brown officially welcomed LSU QB Joe Burrow to Cincinnati on Wednesday, one day before the Draft. Brown sent Burrow a letter that said, amongst other things, that he looks forward “to building championship football teams with you for many years to come.”

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 23, 2020

Burrow is the most anticipated rookie in the history of Cincinnati sports. He’ll bear the burden of reestablishing validity and in the long run saving the franchise. This article will look into Burrow’s statistical body of work, why he will flourish in Cincinnati and his fantasy football outlook.

Joe Burrow’s Statistical Body of Work

Burrow’s collegiate resume is well documented one he arrived in Baton Rouge. He set multiple NCAA, SEC, and LSU records en route to becoming one of the university’s most accomplished players.

In addition to the Heisman Burrow won nearly every national award for a quarterback in 2019. He finished the season with 83% of his throws “on target” according to Sports Info Solutions. Burrow posted a 25-3 record as LSU’s starting quarterback in his two seasons according to Sports Reference. This ranks as the second-longest winning streak for the position in school history. Burrow is the second quarterback in LSU’s history with consecutive 10-win seasons. The first was JaMarcus Russell from 2005 to 2006. Burrow led LSU to 11 wins over top-10 teams during his tenure. This was the most of any quarterback in school history. Let’s walk through Burrow’s fantasy outlook with the Bengals in 2020.

How Joe Burrow Fits with the Bengals

Burrow begins his NFL career with tremendous offensive weapons including veteran wide receivers A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, rookie Tee Higgins, and running back Joe Mixon. Does this translate into a high floor and ceiling for fantasy players?

Burrow, according to Peter King of NBC’s Football Morning in America, was adamant that Cincinnati should retain Green when they met at the combine. The soon to be 32-year old receiver has been extremely vocal about his frustration with the Bengals after months of ineffective negotiations. The reality is that Green has no leverage considering he’s missed 23 of the last 32 games with injuries. The Bengals forced the franchise tag on him in March.

Zac Taylor on A.J. Green: "Everything's been positive with A.J. He's fully healthy." Said Green is working out in Atlanta.

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) April 8, 2020

Green missed all of last season after suffering torn ligaments in his ankle during training camp. He’s averaged 9.24 targets, 5.42 receptions, 80.2 receiving yards, and 0.57 touchdowns per game in his career. Time will tell if Green and Burrow can coexist this season. He’ll make nearly $18 million if he plays 2020 under the tag. If Green could thrive with Dalton under center then the same can be said for Burrow considering its an upgrade.

Boyd accumulated nine games with 60 or more receiving yards last season as the Bengals were constantly playing from behind. Green’s return could limit his target share this season. Boyd has finished with 1,000 or more receiving yards in consecutive seasons. It’s possible he has a career season with Burrow under center.

The Bengals didn’t expect to see Higgins available at pick No. 33 and couldn’t pass up the opportunity to add another first-round caliber talent to the roster. He accumulated over 2,103 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns during his last two seasons at Clemson. Higgins has often been compared to Green. The irony is that he molded his game after Green and now will play with him in 2020.

Mixon will continue to lead the Bengals backfield. The soon to be 24-year old is headed into the final year of his rookie contract. Mixon’s is coming off of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. He was the engine that propelled the Bengals offense as they prioritized the running game after the Week 9 bye week. Mixon accumulated 100 yards or a scored touchdown in six of eight games down the stretch. He finished the season with the sixth-highest opportunity share among running backs. This trend will continue in 2020 as Burrow gets acclimated to the NFL stage.

And now, you're wondering how this supporting cast will influence Burrow’s fantasy outlook. He immediately finds himself on the QB2 radar and will have QB1 upside in certain matchups as a streamer in single-quarterback leagues. Burrow is a better target in best-ball, two-QB, or Superflex formats. He’s walking into a Bengals offense that ranked sixth in pass attempts per game. Burrow’s the frontrunner to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, but that won’t translate to fantasy football league winning success in 2020.

Only five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft have finished their rookie season as a top-10 option.

Lamar Jackson (2018), Deshaun Watson (2017), and Jay Cutler (2006) may have finished in the top-10 if they started an entire season. Two traits that all of these quarterbacks have in common were their willingness to throw downfield and create yards with their legs. Burrow is athletic, but he’s unlikely to produce the rushing number of the quarterbacks mentioned above. The reality is that it's rare for rookies to become immediate fantasy stars at the quarterback position due to the learning curve of the position at the NFL level.

Bottom Line

One source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that Burrow has been studying the Bengals playbook for weeks. Here's what you should know about him heading into the 2020 NFL season:

• Burrow should be viewed as a QB2 in nearly all formats.
• He walks into a very good situation in Cincinnati with a loaded wide receiver corps and a very good running back.
• He’s an alluring dynasty pick because Burrow has no competition and the Bengals appear to be all in on him long term.
• He’s a perfect target in the late first to an early second-round if you need a quarterback. Burrow has the potential to provide your team stability at the quarterback position for the next decade.