Why a Drew Brees Committee Strategy Works in 2020

Jul 22, 2020

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Drew Brees is usually an early-round quarterback, but this season he’s the 10th to 12th passer off the board in the ninth to 12th round, depending on which ADP we use.

One downside with rolling with Brees as your only quarterback are his severe home/away splits. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 327 yards, 2.9 touchdowns, 0.31 interceptions and 24.7 fantasy points in 13 home games. Conversely, he has averaged 224 yards, 1.8 touchdowns, 0.33 interceptions and 17.3 fantasy points in 12 games on the road. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they can be split further into “favorable” and “unfavorable” road matchups.

Without looking at his production, I put road games against the Falcons (x2), Buccaneers (x2), Cowboys and the Bengals in the “favorable” bin. When those games are added to his home splits, he averaged 297 yards for 2.6 touchdowns and 0.32 interceptions for 23.5 fantasy points per game. In the remaining games (Ravens, Vikings, Panthers x2, Titans and Giants), he averaged 214 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 0.33 interceptions for a pedestrian 13.8 points per game.

Since his draft cost has dropped so much, Brees can now be drafted as part of a committee, where owners can draft another quarterback with favorable matchups during Brees’ unfavorable road matchups (along with his bye) and likely get solid-to-great QB1 production at the cost of a mid- to late-round pick (on Brees) and another late-round pick (his backup).