O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 12

Nov 20, 2024

Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 12 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	DEN	LVR	26	23
1	DET	IND	22	21
6	KC	CAR	24	18
9	WAS	DAL	27	18
13	LAC	BAL	29	16
7	PHI	LAR	19	12
5	TB	NYG	17	12
10	BAL	LAC	18	8
15	MIA	NE	23	8
2	GB	SF	9	7
20	HOU	TEN	25	5
8	CAR	KC	10	2
19	ARI	SEA	21	2
29	NYG	TB	31	2
11	SF	GB	12	1
12	ATL	BYE	12	0
4	BUF	BYE	4	0
27	CIN	BYE	27	0
25	JAX	BYE	25	0
17	NO	BYE	17	0
18	NYJ	BYE	18	0
21	PIT	CLE	15	-6
14	IND	DET	6	-8
16	MIN	CHI	4	-12
28	CHI	MIN	16	-12
22	DAL	WAS	7	-15
24	SEA	ARI	8	-16
31	TEN	HOU	14	-17
23	LAR	PHI	2	-21
26	CLE	PIT	1	-25
30	LVR	DEN	3	-27
32	NE	MIA	5	-27

Chargers vs. Ravens

Thrusting a rookie —regardless of NFL Draft capital— into a prominent role as a tackle can oftentimes be a mixed bag (see: Olu Fashanu, Kingsley Suamataia), but it’s been pretty much smooth sailing for Notre Dame’s Joe Alt. Alt currently leads all rookie tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric (97.3, 1st/12 qualifiers), while only allowing more than one pressure on two instances. With the help of All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater on the other side, they will take on a Ravens pass rush that has the ninth-lowest pressure rate (11.4%) from outside-the-tackle rushers (the “5” gap and beyond).

Pressure or not, this sets up as a fantastic matchup for the once-forgotten Quentin Johnston, as Baltimore has allowed the league’s most yards (1,470) and touchdowns (10) to outside wide receivers, where the sophomore lines up on 92.6% of his routes. Continue to consider Ladd McConkey a WR2 play, but his teammate can definitely be plugged in as a WR3/Flex option.

Broncos @ Raiders

Even if the 2024 Denver Broncos don’t go on some extravagant playoff run, it’s safe to say they’ve had the final laugh, regardless of how their season ends. Sean Payton and the direction of the franchise were under more than enough scrutiny after the first month of the season, with their passing offense barely eclipsing 150 yards per game and Bo Nix looking a bit out of his element.

But Nix continued growing, and the offensive line continued to gel in their second year as a unit, and what we have now is quite the efficient operation. Since their Week 5 victory over this same Las Vegas Raiders team, the Broncos rank sixth in completion percentage over expected (5.9%) and fifth in pressure rate allowed (24.4%), while Nix has operated as fantasy’s QB4 in FPPG (21.3).

Nix is very much in QB1 consideration here, while Courtland Sutton has done a fantastic job of digging himself out of an early-season grave to grace us as a WR2 option on a thin slate of games.

Chiefs @ Panthers

While the left tackle situation continues to be a work in progress in Kansas City, their interior remains arguably the best in the league, and RT Jawaan Taylor has been a far more sturdy option than he was in his first year with the Chiefs.

Deciding how to exploit this OL/DL mismatch seems a little difficult on paper —particularly after 11 Chiefs players caught a pass last week— but this should be a good situation to stick with our guns with the top options. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who have basically been streaming-level options all year, should be confidently fired up, while DeAndre Hopkins nestles back into fringe WR2/3 territory.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Commanders vs. Cowboys

The Cowboys offense is tumbling down the cliff at a high rate of speed right now, and though Dak Prescott’s season-ending hamstring surgery carries much of that burden, the constant O-line injuries aren’t helping anything, either. All-World right guard Zack Martin left the game with another ankle injury that has him questionable for Week 12 and beyond; the same can be said for left guard Tyler Smith, and left tackle Tyler Guyton didn’t return due to his shoulder injury sustained on a fumble recovery attempt.

In short, it’s going poorly.

Fire up the Commanders' D/ST as a streaming option and/or in DFS lineups.

Dolphins vs. Patriots

Drake Maye has been hitting a groove as of late, but the Patriots offensive line hasn’t been able to share in that glory. The rookie quarterback has been pressured on 37.8% of his dropbacks this season, the sixth-most among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, while New England’s 9.3% adjusted sack rate rankings 27th. According to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted data, the Patriots rank 30th in D/ST aFPA, with Maye leading the league with a 5.2% turnover-worthy play rate.

The Dolphins have a fantastic floor/ceiling combination in Week 12.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Backs
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
6	KC	CAR	32	26
3	DEN	LVR	25	22
9	WAS	DAL	28	19
2	GB	SF	20	18
1	DET	IND	18	17
5	TB	NYG	19	14
15	MIA	NE	26	11
16	MIN	CHI	22	6
19	ARI	SEA	24	5
7	PHI	LAR	10	3
13	LAC	BAL	14	1
11	SF	GB	12	1
22	DAL	WAS	23	1
12	ATL	BYE	12	0
4	BUF	BYE	4	0
27	CIN	BYE	27	0
25	JAX	BYE	25	0
17	NO	BYE	17	0
18	NYJ	BYE	18	0
24	SEA	ARI	21	-3
20	HOU	TEN	17	-3
32	NE	MIA	27	-5
8	CAR	KC	1	-7
10	BAL	LAC	3	-7
14	IND	DET	5	-9
26	CLE	PIT	16	-10
29	NYG	TB	15	-14
21	PIT	CLE	6	-15
23	LAR	PHI	7	-16
30	LVR	DEN	9	-21
28	CHI	MIN	2	-26
31	TEN	HOU	4	-27

Packers vs. 49ers

The 49ers' defense has held strong during some difficult recent matchups, ranking in the top-10 of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to all positions except running back, where they rank 20th. This is great news for Josh Jacobs, running behind a Packers O-line that ranks seventh in adjusted line yards (4.62) and 13th in RB yards before contact (1.73).

In a pivotal NFC matchup with very serious playoff implications, it’s unlikely that this is the week they start to incorporate Emanuel Wilson any more than they already have. Jacobs is a locked-in RB1 option.

Lions @ Colts

As if you needed any more impetus to play Jahmyr Gibbs and/or David Montgomery, they come into Week 12 weekend against a Colts defense that ranks 22nd in defensive adjusted line yards (4.56) and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (142.8). On the flip side, Detroit ranks first (5.11, 145.0) in both of the offensive iterations of those statistics and is favored by 7.5 points in the game.

It’s an easy click for both Gibbs and Montgomery and they could very feasibly land as RB1s in a week with six teams on bye.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: