FanDuel Week 17 GPP Picks and Strategy

Dec 31, 2020

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The final week of the season is unlike any other—some teams are playing for their seasons while others are just trying to get it over with. Motivations are all over the place for both players and coaches and projecting playing time is arguably as important as analyzing matchups. In many cases, we are trying to forecast outcomes for players who have barely played a snap all year. Where DFS players may try to stick to offenses that have something to play for in cash games, GPPs are where that uncertainty can be leveraged. In some cases, players in great situations that otherwise might be chalk could go severely under-owned if there is a chance they don’t get a full complement of snaps. Similarly, unproven players on unmotivated teams could offer tournament-winning weeks.

Before setting any lineups, be sure to track which teams are motivated this week.

Offenses to Target

Buccaneers (-6.5) vs Falcons; O/U 50

Tampa Bay falls under 4for4’s “somewhat motivated” category but there is enough doubt to keep them out of cash games. With a win, the Bucs can lock up a game against whatever bad team wins the NFC East, and Vegas thinks they will go after that seeding, favoring Tampa by 6.5 points with an implied total over 28. Don’t expect the onslaught that we saw against Detroit last week but the Falcons have allowed the most raw fantasy points to quarterbacks this year and rank 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) allowed to wide receivers.