3 Late-Round Quarterbacks to Target in FFPC High Stakes Leagues
Whether you missed out on the top quarterbacks in your draft or like to stream them with late picks, grabbing a high-upside quarterback in the later rounds can provide fruitful upside.
Most of my focus for redraft leagues goes into contests over at the FFPC and almost all of my fantasy exposure will be through their $350 contests and Main Event with Joe Paeno. This article is the first part in a series highlighting some of my favorite late-round targets, according to FFPC ADP since July 17th.
Tua Tagovailoa
$350 ADP: 250.79 (QB22)/Main Event ADP: 305.67 (QB23)
The phrase “Tank For Tua” will forever be etched into my brain, for better or worse. The uber-talented prospect was a near-lock to be the No. 1 overall pick heading into his junior season but dislocated his hip halfway through the season while Joe Burrow turned in one of the best seasons in college football history. Tua Tagovailoa still went No. 5 overall to the Dolphins and then sat behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for half the season. Only a year removed from his gruesome injury, he was thrust into action without an offseason to practice and in an offense built around Ryan Fitzpatrick via OC Chan Gailey. His top options were DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, two players who aren’t known to separate—the opposite of what he had at Alabama. All things considered, it wasn’t an outright disaster as he still completed 64.4% of his passes and recorded an 11:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The biggest issue was his lack of pushing the ball downfield, averaging only 6.26 yards per attempt.
The Dolphins’ offseason additions are largely what makes me bullish on Tagovailoa this year. They signed electric wideout Will Fuller, who proved last year he is capable of operating as a No. 1 wideout and has the wheels to separate. The Dolphins also drafted former Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick. While Waddle didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he was the fastest player in the country using the NCAA’s GPS trackers, according to Daniel Jeremiah. The addition of Waddle and Fuller can’t be discussed enough especially when Tagovailoa struggled to push the ball downfield last season. All signs during training camp have been that he has been throwing the ball downfield much better and looks much stronger in general.
The second-year signal-caller started and finished seven games last season. With Ryan Fitzpatrick now in Washington, we can plan for Tagovailoa to start all 17 games barring another injury. He averaged 17.75 fantasy points in the seven games he started, including games with 28, 21, 19.7, 18.2 and 16.9 fantasy points. Given the circumstances noted above, there is a lot of room for Tagovailoa to take a big step forward. His current ADP has him listed at QB22 in $350 drafts and QB23 in the Main Event. Our current projections have him as the QB14 overall, a sizeable value. At the bare minimum, he’ll be a viable streamer in good matchups with the upside to be a week-in-week-out QB1. With the training camp drumbeat starting, now’s the time to start drafting Tua Tagovailoa in the later rounds.
Ryan Tannehill
$350 ADP: 131.6 (QB13)/Main Event ADP: 143.6 (QB14)
Plenty of people look at the Titans and think about a run-first offense centered around Derrick Henry. While that may be true to some extent that doesn’t mean Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have massive fassive upside. He finished as the fantasy QB7 overall last season. He's now being drafted outside the top 12 of quarterbacks in both FFPC Main Event and $350 leagues. Our projections put him at QB9, but I’m even more bullish beyond that.
The Titans traded for Julio Jones to trot out alongside A.J. Brown and now boast one of the best wide receiver duos in the league. The Titans' offensive line is ranked 13th prior to the season by Justin Edwards with the return of Taylor Lewan, the addition of Kendall Lamm and the drafting of Dillon Radunz in the second round.
Their defense ranked 28th in defensive EPA last year and lost Jadeveon Clowney, Malcolm Butler and Adoree' Jackson. They added Janoris Jenkins and drafted rookie Caleb Farley in the first round but projecting their secondary to be remotely good is a stretch. It’s pretty easy for us to project them to remain basement-dwellers in terms of defensive efficiency.
This matters because the Titans are more than happy to salt games away with Henry if they are up big or there is no pressure on their offense. Tannehill has some interesting splits based on his attempts centered around this theory. He had 22.7 points per game in the 11 games where he attempted 25+ passes and just 18.7 fantasy points per game in the others.
With added weapons, a bolstered offensive line, and the defense likely forcing the offense to do more than just hand the ball to King Henry, Tannehill has massive upside. He is a must-start in potential high-scoring affairs and a fringe QB1 in all other contests. If you miss out on some of the top-tier quarterbacks you may have been targeting, don’t be afraid to scoop up Tannehill in the 10th round or later as your starter.
Zach Wilson
$350 ADP: 318.74 (QB28)/Main Event ADP: 241.67 (QB19)
Close your eyes and forget which team Zach Wilson plays for. This mystery team figures to trot out a combination of Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims and Keelan Cole at wideout. They upgraded the offensive line in the offseason, drafting Alijah Vera-Tucker, signing Morgan Moses, plus Mekhi Becton is still intact. They also have two talented running backs in Tevin Coleman and rookie Michael Carter, who can contribute in the passing game.
This team also fired performance-diminisher Adam Gase and brought in a regime led by promising HC Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur at OC. If you can get over Wilson playing on the Jets and erase the last five years of dismal performances from Gang Green there is plenty of value. The second overall pick in this year’s draft is a dual-threat gunslinger out of BYU who racked up 10 rushing touchdowns as a junior, adding some Konami Code appeal beyond his passing ability.
Wilson and the Jets offense is not something you want to go all-in but they do present an extremely wide range of outcomes most people can’t comprehend because we haven’t seen it. His weapons are above average, his offensive line figures to be competent and he has an unproven but exciting coaching staff around him.
