Top 5 Matchups for Week 11
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and once we hit Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Week 11 Matchups
Adam Trautman @ Philadelphia Eagles
The up-and-down season for Trautman is on the upswing as Juwan Johnson continues to be inconsistent and scratched at times for the Saints. Trautman has 19 targets in the past three games and is seeing the most snaps among Saints tight ends. He gets the Eagles defense that is 32nd in aFPA to opposing tight ends in half and full-point PPR formats. Seven tight ends have collected at least three catches and 39 yards against the Eagles since Week 7, an average of 13.73 PPR points per tight end. Trautman also has six red-zone targets (three inside the 10), trailing only team leaders Alvin Kamara and Marquez Callaway by one in that category.
Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins @ Tennessee Titans
That Titans secondary is bad. One week after allowing Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to flirt with 100-yard games, they allowed Deonte Harris to collect 83 receiving yards and Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway to get multiple catches and a touchdown each.
The Houston Texans are #Bad but are coming off a bye and another week of Tyrod Taylor under center at practice. That is good news for Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. If the Texans' offensive line can slow the Titans' front four on defense, the offense could get cooking. Tennessee has allowed an average of 16.2 catches and 212.7 receiving yards per game to wideouts. Danny Amendola has some appeal as a desperation flex in PPR formats as well.
Ben Roethlisberger/Mason Rudolph and Steelers Receivers @ Los Angeles Chargers
There are concerns that Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19) misses Week 11, leaving Mason Rudolph to start for the Steelers. Rudolph and his red nose could not beat the Lions' porous secondary at home, but are expected to go to Los Angeles and challenge the Chargers secondary? L.A. is second against quarterbacks and first against opposing wideouts in aFPA and is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Steelers' offensive line also sustained multiple injuries in Week 10 and could be even more shorthanded than normal. Compound those injuries with T.J. Watt getting hurt and a Week 11 trip to California is looking like a nightmare.
James Conner @ Seattle Seahawks
Bounce-back weeks are some of my favorite and Conner gets that in Seattle in Week 11. The Seahawks allow the 30th-most points to running backs, including two 120 receiving yard efforts to Green Bay and New Orleans in the past three games.
Chase Edmonds should miss another week. Eno Benjamin will have a role behind Conner, but after only 10 carries in a negative game script Week 10, the Cardinals would do well to establish the run Week 11, especially if Colt McCoy has to start again.
Cam Newton vs. Washington Football Team
REVENGE! If Cam Newton cannot show signs of life against the WFT defense then he may be officially cooked. The WFT defense is 32nd in aFPA to opposing QBs and may have emptied the tank trying to shut down Tom Brady Week 10. Newton may not touch 290 yards passing, or the average yards allowed through the air by WFT, but his usage in the red zone will keep his fantasy floor higher than most. Newton is also buoyed by a healthy Christian McCaffrey and chemistry with WR D.J. Moore.
