Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Giants at Buccaneers

Nov 22, 2021

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A rested (and maybe healthy) New York Giants team heads to Florida to take on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team looking to bounce back from a loss one week ago.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Vegas Total and Spread

The Buccaneers are 11-point home favorites with an over/under of 49.5 points. The Buccaneers have an implied team total of 30.25 points, while the Giants have an implied team total of 19.25 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

The Giants' offense stems on the health of their running backs. Saquon Barkley (ankle, $20) and Devontae Booker (hip, $13) are questionable with at least Barkley expected to play. The Buccaneers defense ($18) started 2021 as one of the best defenses in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing running backs but has slipped to 11th heading into Week 11.

An active duo of Barkley and Booker would help alleviate pressure on Daniel Jones ($26). The Giants’ offensive line is as healthy as it is going to get and gets the challenge of Tampa’s front four. The Giants do avoid Vita Vea (doubtful, knee) this week. Jones will have his healthiest wide receiver corps in weeks. Only Sterling Shepard (quad) will miss Monday night’s game, which means Kenny Golladay ($15), Kadarius Toney ($16), and Darius Slayton ($12) will get to run routes against the 27th ranked team in aFPA to opposing wideouts. That does not include the injuries to Richard Sherman and the continued absence of Carlton Davis III. Despite the yardage being suboptimal, Evan Engram ($15) has contributed to the Giants offense more in 2021 than he has in recent vintages.

The Giants defense ($12) has allowed 20 or fewer points in three straight games. If they can do the same against Tom Brady ($37) and company, then a win is within reach. Antonio Brown (ankle) is out, but the duo of Chris Godwin ($24) and Mike Evans ($29) is one of the best in the league. They should see a lot of Adoree Jackson and James Bradberry. That leaves Tyler Johnson ($10), the tight end trio, and maybe Scotty Miller (toe, $10) as secondary options against a defense that is top 12 in aFPA against quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.

As boring as it sounds, Tampa can gain the upper hand early by running the ball. The Giants are a run funnel defense and the Bucs have had a lot of success trusting Leonard Fournette ($23). He has been game script independent despite having a downhill runner behind him (Ronald Jones, $10) and a career pass-catching back (Giovani Bernard, $13) behind him. Week 3 is the only time Fournette has not logged double-digit touches this season.

Close, low-scoring game

Tom Brady
Leonard Fournette
Chris Godwin
Buccaneers defense
Daniel Jones
Saquon Barkley
Giants defense

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Chris Godwin ($24) and Kyle Rudolph ($10)

This duo does not have a correlation tied to it but it offers the top passing game red zone targets for both teams. Through Week 11, Godwin is third in red zone targets in the NFL, while Rudolph is the leader for the Giants with Sterling Shepard out. Regardless, Rudolph has 23.8% of the Giants’ target share inside the 10-yard line.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Kyle Rudolph ($10)

See above. Targeting Rudolph for his red zone usage could lead to a goose egg since the Giants offense has issues moving the ball.

Darius Slayton ($12)

Slayton has played in six games this season. Twice he has finished with zero points and once with just 1.30 half-PPR points. He has yardage totals of 65, 54, and 63 in the other contests.

Giovani Bernard ($13)

The "designated two-minute drill" back according to Bruce Arians has volatile fantasy production. He has three double-digit games (all with touchdowns) and five performances with under three points.

Ronald Jones ($10)

Simply put, Jones plays more when the Bucs are winning. In the two losses he played, Jones had five and four total touches. In wins, he has four, nine, six, six, six, and ten touches.

Tyler Johnson ($10)

If Scotty Miller is not activated from IR, Johnson will run in three-wide sets. He has 11 targets in the past two games.

Superstar Picks

Leonard Fournette ($23)

Lead back, positive matchup, and Tom Brady dumping the ball off to you. Sign me up.

Tom Brady ($37)

Brady will bounce back after a poor outing.

Kadarius Toney ($16)

Toney has better numbers on the road this season. In three road games, he is averaging 9 targets, 6.66 receptions, and 97.66 yards per game. His averages are buoyed by a 10/189/0 game, but it also shows that Toney is utilized more when the Giants have to pass. Toney has the speed to give Tampa trouble.

Chris Godwin ($24)

James Bradberry has history with Mike Evans, and Evans is more expensive. I expect Godwin to be popular at the Superstar position. If Bradberry continues to play well against Evans, the yardage and touchdown upside should turn to Godwin.

Daniel Jones ($26)

Jones has scored 29.46 and 17.08 points in two primetime games this season, and both on the road. Jones needs a few designed runs per game because his rushing ability is one of the best at the QB position. Worst case scenario, Jones is running for his life and breaks a few.