Fantasy Fallout of Allen Robinson Joining the High-Octane Rams

Arguably the best WR in this year’s free agency class found a new home on March 17 by inking a three-year deal with the LA Rams worth $46.5 million, with $30.7 million of it fully guaranteed. Allen Robinson finally gets a reliable quarterback, and the Rams receiving corps becomes even scarier. Let’s look at how the signing shakes out for fantasy purposes.

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Can We Just Forget Last Season?

Robinson’s 2021 output was gross, and many fantasy managers probably swore him off for this season way before he signed with LA. However, last year was a clear outlier for the 28-year old, as he had managed to pull off impressive fantasy numbers in his prior seven seasons in the NFL, all while getting thrown to by a bevy of underwhelming QBs.

This table shows Robinson’s fantasy output from 2014-2020 and who was under center during his time as a profitable fantasy asset. Numbers for 2017 are not included, as ARob was injured early in Week 1.

As you can see from this data, Robinson offered the upside of a fantasy WR1 with the floor of a WR3 on teams with struggling offenses. The Jaguars averaged a team offensive ranking of 24th from 2014 -2016 according to Pro Football Reference, with Chicago coming in as 21st from 2018-2020.

What changed in 2021 for ARob? To start, he was dealing with both a hamstring injury and COVID-19 that sidelined the WR for five contests, and the Bears were even more of a disaster as a whole than in previous seasons. Chicago checked in as 23rd or worse in all passing statistical categories last year, with some of the highlights including 27th in completions (332), 23rd in pass attempts (541), 30th in passing yards (3,207), and 29th in passing touchdowns with a mere 16 all season.

Robinson gets a new life in a very high-scoring Rams’ offense, in a system that should allow the talented WR to flourish, at least as a fantasy asset again.

What Does it All Mean for LA’s Fantasy Players?

The Rams already have the No. 1 fantasy wideout from 2021 in their WR room in Cooper Kupp, along with both Robert Woods and Odell Beckham (for now), who are collectively healing from injury. If all of these players remain on the roster, which seems highly unlikely based on rumors already swirling, this could be a murky mess for targets and fantasy output.

We also can’t forget about Tyler Higbee and, of course, the Rams backfield, as both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson should also be somewhat involved in LA’s pass attack.

The Rams offense should continue to run through Kupp, but what happens after that is still unclear for now. If Woods remains and OBJ does not, we can assume that the six targets per game Beckham received in his eight regular-season contests go to ARob, who averaged a hearty 8.9 targets per game in 2014-2020, minus his sidelined season of 2017. It’s unlikely he’ll see that type of volume with a healthy Woods in the mix, so a WR3 output is likely in the cards for Robinson in this scenario.

If the Rams deal Woods and keep OBJ, we may see Robinson get a small bump similar to what we saw for Woods in 2020, where he averaged 8.1 balls per tilt. However, the toothpaste is already out of the tube on Kupp, and there’s no going back to the volume split Kupp and Woods saw that season. We’re looking at either WR2 or WR3 status for Robinson with Stafford, which does give him a bump in ADP due to QB alone, but don’t chase ARob from prior years where he was the clear WR1 in his offense, instead consider him a WR3 with tons of upside if anything were to happen to one of the talented weapons in the Rams’ offense this season.

What About the Bears?

This move means a rise up the depth chart for Darnell Mooney, which comes as no surprise, and the 24-year old is already being drafted as WR30 in the early-sixth round in Underdog best ball drafts. After a breakout in 2021 with 10.5 half-PPR points per game as WR32, Mooney is the clear top dog (or Bear) in Chicago’s passing game this season and gets a small edge over ARob from a fantasy perspective due to impending volume. He’s currently WR31 in 4for4’s never-too-early rankings with Robinson at WR39.

The Bears may also lean on Cole Kmet a bit more in 2022 unless they add a plug-and-go rookie pass catcher in the NFL Draft or sign a fruitful, veteran free agent. Kmet was a disappointment for those who drafted him last season but could be a nice value in best ball formats, as his current ADP of 133 (TE15) has legitimate potential to be outproduced.

Bottom Line

While it’s sexy to think about Robinson finally being on a highly productive offense with a talented quarterback under center, expectations need to be tempered, at least until we see how the rest of the WR corps comes together.

• Robinson’s spot in Matthew Stafford’s pecking order could be a WR2 or WR3, making him more of a fantasy WR3 with upside. His current 4for4 ranking is WR39, with an Underdog ADP of 88.6 as WR43.
• Cooper Kupp may lose a smidge of volume, but he’s still the alpha in the Rams offense and should be drafted as a fantasy WR1, if not the WR1.
• Consider Darnell Mooney a fantasy WR3, as he should have the volume in the Bears rebuild but is still dealing with a struggling sophomore QB. Cole Kmet could be a post-hype sleeper at TE with Chicago’s lack of offensive weaponry.