Fantasy Football Debate: Stefon Diggs vs. Travis Kelce

Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce are being drafted as WR4 and TE1 respectively, in the first round on Underdog Fantasy. In this debate, Chris Allen argues for Stefon Diggs while Jennifer Eakins fights for Travis Kelce.

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The Case for Stefon Diggs

Chris: I understand why drafters would hesitate between Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce. The two had nearly identical point-per-game averages in PPR scoring last season (16.8 to 16.4). And, with Tyreek Hill’s departure, no pass-catcher has a stronger rapport with Patrick Mahomes. Kelce’s season ended with 95 yards on 11 targets. Diggs had just seven receiving yards the previous week. He might’ve been the WR7 in total points. But it certainly didn’t feel like it at times.

It's hard to follow up a 1500-yard season, but we expected Diggs to maintain his alpha role on the team. He did, but the ceiling fell a bit. His share of the team’s air yards fell from 37.9% to 34.0%. Diggs earned more air yards in 57.1% of his games during the 2020 season compared to last year. Buffalo brought in Emmanuel Sanders, and Dawson Knox took a step forward. Opportunity for Diggs was bound to decrease. My only concern was if his skill set was on the decline.

This guy is on a TEAR#ReceptionPerception https://t.co/UedktXdvGp pic.twitter.com/X6HSzBecMl

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 23, 2022

Nope. Matt Harmon’s analysis over at Reception Perception puts Diggs squarely in the 'premiere route runner' category. Diggs was also just one of four receivers at or above the league average success rate for every route, and he's still a force after the catch. He ran fewer routes from the slot lowering his yards-after-the-catch total but was sixth in missed tackles forced per reception. So, ‘real-football’ Diggs is still a top-tier player at his position. However, ‘fantasy-football’ Diggs may still be a question mark.

Last I checked, ‘success rate per route’ or ‘missed tackles forced per reception’ weren’t scoring options I could enable in my managed leagues. We need targets. We need red-zone opportunities. From my previous work, early-round WRs with high win rates have had an average 25.9% target share and 24.2% red-zone share. Simply put, we need high utilization rates. And fortunately, Diggs’s usage stacked up with the other top options at his position.

Diggs was top-10 in targets per route run (TPRR) and red-zone target share. Despite disappointing boxscore results, he exceeded both utilization benchmarks for an early-round receiver. Also, his portion of Buffalo’s air yards (34.3%) and red-zone TPRR (30.8%) were both inside the Top 20. Diggs has the opportunity. He also has the offense to meet our expectations.

Buffalo was top-10 in overall and red-zone pass rate over expectation. Their offensive yards per drive and pace of play ranks were also in the Top 10. And they aren’t undergoing a schematic shift on offense like Kelce in Kansas City. The situation and opportunity for Diggs are unlike any other wide receiver you’ll find past his WR4 cost on Underdog. If given the choice, I’ll start my drafts with him.

The Case for Travis Kelce

Jennifer: Chris and I argue like brother and sister on 4for4’s weekly TMAP podcast so I guess it’s time to take it to the written word. To be honest, I like Stefon Diggs this season but for the sake of debate, I will argue the Kelce side since I do think both of these players are victims of recency bias in their fantasy outlooks in 2022.

Kelce has been a starting TE in fantasy football since 2014, with two TE10 finishes in half-PPR points per game in 2014-2015, followed by two TE2 seasons, then a three-straight stint at the very top from 2018-2020 before being dethroned last year by Mark Andrews to end as the TE2 on what was considered a down year for the Chiefs TE. He’s as consistent as they come and has only missed three contests in eight seasons (one last year due to COVID).

I understand that father time is undefeated and that Kelce will turn 33 during this NFL season, but even in a year where he posted three-season lows in targets (134), receptions (92), and receiving yards (1,125), the TE finished with the second-highest fantasy points at his position both overall and per game, and those numbers were significantly higher than the TE3, George Kittle.

Let’s just say he slows down a bit based on age, it’s tough to ignore the high-end target share Kelce’s about to receive from Patrick Mahomes in 2022. Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami, making 159 targets (25.1%) available this season, and yes, Kansas City added JuJu-Smith Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling to the mix along with rookie Skyy Moore, but it’s Kelce who has the long-standing chemistry with his QB. The TE saw 134 balls in 2021 in a down year and posted his best fantasy numbers in 2018 and 2020, where he was thrown to at least 145 times. So even if he gets a small uptick from last year which seems unlikely due to the sheer volume up for grabs, he’s due for increased fantasy output.

The TE position is once again feast or famine in the fantasy world, so grabbing an elite option at the top, one with consistency and mass volume is something to highly consider so that you can focus on other positions for the remainder of your draft.

Diggs is also coming off what was considered a depressed year, where he ended 2021 as the fantasy WR9 in half-PPR points per contest. His target share fell from 29% down to 24% and he only posted more than 90 receiving yards twice during the Bills' 19-game season. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are gone, but Buffalo added a few new weapons in Jamison Crowder and pass-catching rookie RB James Cook, plus Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox are also standing by to muddy up the target distribution, even on a high-scoring offense.

Diggs is being drafted at spot 8.5, sandwiched between Derrick Henry and Najee Harris, while Kelce has slipped to the turn with an ADP of 12.2 in Underdog drafts. For my draft money, give me Kelce to shore up the TE spot and grab CeeDee Lamb or Mike Evans on the way back, who are projected to post 213 and 209 half-PPR points respectively, to Diggs’ 210.