Week 14 Thursday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 08, 2022

Thursday Single-Game DFS: Raiders at Rams

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One team is clinging to NFL relevancy, while the other is clinging to any NFL player that can suit up. The Las Vegas Raiders host the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14’s lid lifter.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

It is not just about finishing in first place in Showdown, it is about finishing in solo first. This format is one of the easiest to chop top prize because of the smaller player pool. Therefore, being different (and correct) in roster construction is the difference between doubling your entry cost and taking down a GPP. Let’s take a look at this week’s important notes and players I am focusing on when building for Showdown formats on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Vegas Total and Spread

Las Vegas is a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 43 points. The Raiders have a 24.75-point implied team total, while the Rams have an implied team total of 18.25 points.

Potential Gameflow Scenarios

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If this matchup is not Thursday Night Football personified…

Despite the many shortcomings of the L.A. Rams, it gives a rosier outlook on how the Las Vegas Raiders can attack a team ripe for another beat down. Derek Carr ($15,000 FD/$10,400 DK) has two reliable wide receivers and a running back playing at an elite level and get to face a Rams defense ($9,000 FD/$3,400 DK) without Aaron Donald and with Jalen Ramsey playing like a shell of his best self. In a concentrated offense that is without two key starters in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, the Raiders have found a way to keep pace with some of the better offenses in the NFL. Davante Adams ($16,000 FD/$12,800 DK) and Mack Hollins ($9,500 FD/$7,400 DK) have formed an unlikely 1-2 combo. Hollins has especially been a surprise; he is 184 receiving yards away from matching his career total in just one season with the Raiders.

Josh Jacobs ($16,500 FD/$12,400 DK) is playing at an all-world level the past month. He is in his second stretch of running for at least 109 rushing yards in three straight games and has been excellent as a pass-catcher. He has five games with at least five catches, adding another layer of depth to the Raiders passing offense.

It is realistic that the Rams could have three quarterbacks active and none of them matter. Baker Mayfield ($12,500 FD/$9,000 DK) is new in town, John Wolford ($13,000 FD/$8,800 DK) is questionable and ouchy, and Bryce Perkins ($13,000 FD/$6,000 FD) is a nice runner that lines up under center.

The lone bright spot has been the re-emergence of Cam Akers ($12,000 FD/$7,800 DK). His quick return from a torn Achilles may have hurt his long-term viability as a runner, but his recent run as the lead RB for the Rams is a testament to Akers’ work. It’s just a shame that his return is attached to such a tire fire of an offense.

Here are players to target based on various game flow scenarios:

Close, low-scoring game

Derek Carr
Josh Jacobs
Zamir White (if Jacobs is out)
Davante Adams
Daniel Carlson
Raiders defense
Cam Akers
Matt Gay
Rams defense

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for away team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Mack Hollins ($9,500 FD/$7,400 DK)/Tutu Atwell ($6,500 FD/$4,400 DK)/Kyren Williams ($7,000 FD/$5,400)

It is almost too easy to have Atwell and Williams in a stack with Davante Adams, so the uniqueness comes from Hollins. The Raiders WR2 has been more productive than Hunter Renfrow when healthy, and the Rams pass defense has been allowing multiple receivers to accumulate fantasy points in the same game. Atwell will be given more looks according to Rams head coach Sean McVay in part because he should have done so sooner, and Williams is the pass-catching RB for the Rams despite only seven receptions between Williams and Akers in the three games without Matthew Stafford this season.

Low-Priced Volatile Players

Bryce Perkins ($13,000 FD/$6,000 DK)

Strictly a DK play, Perkins has the best rushing capability of any Rams QB. The Raiders have faced a true running QB once and have allowed 20-plus rushing yards to statues such as Matt Ryan among others. That is where Perkins has value (4.74 yards per attempt on 34 attempts).

Brandon Powell ($7,500 FD/$2,400 DK)

We’re grasping at straws with the Rams passing attack. Powell is questionable because of an illness, but if he plays, has converted eight targets into eight receptions in the past three games. That’s a solid fantasy floor all things considered.

Keelan Cole ($6,000 FD/$200 DK)

Hunter Renfrow is not expected to play, so Cole will once again play the slot WR role for the Raiders. Cole has three catches on six targets over the past four games, in case you were wondering how inefficient he has been. The arrival of Adams and the emergence of Hollins have hurt whomever plays the slot when the two are on the field.

Zamir White ($5,500 FD/$200 DK)

White should have a role even if Josh Jacobs is active. Jacobs has 104 carries (121 total touches) over the past four games, and a lighter load on a short week may not be the worst plan assuming the Raiders take care of business early.

Captain/MVP Picks

Davante Adams ($16,000 FD/$19,200 DK)

Be not afraid of Jalen Ramsey. The Rams defense still has talented players out there, but it is noticeable that the team is packing it in without slowing down on the field. Only five players have more red zone targets than Adams.

Josh Jacobs ($16,500 FD/$18,600 DK)

The only concern with Jacobs is his workload on a short week with his numerous injuries limiting his practice time. If Jacobs suits up, he is very much in play.

Mack Hollins ($9,500 FD/$11,100 DK)

Hollins at CPT/MVP is leverage off Adams in the same lineup slot in a great spot. The Rams are four days removed from allowing DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to both catch at least 8 passes and top 125 receiving yards. This is also a way to fade Josh Jacobs if you think his workload is limited in the likely instance the Rams fold early.

Tutu Atwell ($6,500 FD/$6,600 DK)

The Raiders pass defense is bad. Only seven defenses allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to opposing wideouts and Rams head coach Sean McVay wants to get Atwell the ball more. He has the speed to get away from any defense and is small enough to evade tacklers that are in front of him. In 1-5 or 1-4 builds, Atwell makes an intriguing CPT/MVP dart throw with Raiders onslaughts.

Bryce Perkins ($13,000 FD/$9,000 DK)

He has to start, but a Perkins CPT/MVP lineup once again offers salary relief for Raiders builds and is a play on his ability to run and potentially find the end zone. Perkins is averaging 5.11 yards per carry and has carried the ball more than thrown it in two of four games played.