Fantasy Football Week 3: Trader's Alley: Buy Low, Sell High, and a Chart

Sep 21, 2022

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I don't know about you, but I had a lot more fun watching football this weekend than in Week 1. We got to see some insane comebacks, herculean performances, and just some fun football. The scoring for running backs still seems low, but that means there is likely some chance to scoop up value vs the market. Which of course means it is time to trade! Let's take a look at this week's trade value chart.

To create these trade value charts, I used 4for4's Rest-of-Season rankings as the seed input into my trade model to create a unique trade value chart. A feature of this chart is the "vs. Market" column after each player that compares 4for4 trade values with the market sheets I post on Reddit. We will briefly review how I make the models and some key buys /sells/holds based on a market snapshot. I wanted to focus on market discrepancies and key players that I think are overvalued or undervalued with room for return.

Methods

My goal in building a model in 2017 was to quantify each position (wide receiver, tight end, quarterback) in terms of the running back position. I view running backs as the backbone of a fantasy football team. I regularly calibrate my model by scrapping public data for 1-for-1 positional trades to adjust my relationships up or down. This also helps me account for injuries increasing scarcity and shifts in offenses. I built a model that then uses expert ranks as an input or seed file to generate these graphics.