Week 3 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Wide Receivers
Wondering whom to start and sit at quarterback this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the quarterback position for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 2 Review – Half-PPR scoring
Starts
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – 2.5 fantasy points (WR87)
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions) vs. Washington Commanders - 34.9 fantasy points (WR3)
Sits
- WR Robert Woods (Tennessee Titans) @ Buffalo Bills – 5.9 fantasy points (WR59)
- WR CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – 11.6 fantasy points (WR29)
Wide Receiver – Starts
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons) @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks defense is doing a good job of limiting explosive pass plays. Seattle’s 7.8% explosive pass plays allowed (tied for 12th best) but opponents are still gouging them for a league-high 0.387 passing expected points added (EPA) per play, and their 254.5 passing yards allowed sit 10th most on a per-game basis. Seattle notably lost do-it-all safety Jamal Adams (quad) for the season.
On Atlanta’s side of things, it has taken just two games for rookie wide receiver Drake London to take over the Falcons’ passing game alpha. Not only has London out-targeted tight end Kyle Pitts 20-to-10, per 4for4’s NFL Player Stats Explorer, but London’s 20 targets are also T-14th most in the league and he’s produced an elite 34.0% targets per route run rate, trailing only Stefon Diggs, Treylon Burks, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (min. 10 targets). His dominant 2.76 yards per route run have him 12th. Against the Seahawks and their deep-ball-obsessed secondary, London should thrive on his 9.1 average depth of target (aDOT) yardage mark.
*4for4’s full WR rankings can be found here.
Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) @ Carolina Panthers
Rookie Chris Olave owns the league’s top marks in both aDOT (21.9) and air yards per game (186) (min. 10 targets) and his 23.0% targets per route run rate puts him in the company of players like Mike Evans (24.0%), Ja’Marr Chase (23.0%), and his teammate Thomas (23.0%). Olave and Thomas should expect their targets per route run rates to increase moving forward, as Jarvis Landry’s Week 1 matchup vs. Atlanta’s Dee Alford called for exploitation and inflated his stats.
The Carolina Panthers, 17th in quarterback pressure rate with zero interceptions, were already a defense to target but their stock has dropped further with No. 1 perimeter cornerback Donte Jackson suffering a hamstring strain. Olave was already likely to see less of Jackson’s coverage and more so a mix of No. 2 perimeter cornerback Jaycee Horn and No. 3 C.J. Henderson, two young players who have yet to do much of anything, but a Jackson absence would be a serious boon to his outlook as it will guarantee he see plenty of opportunities against the lackluster Henderson.
Wide Receiver – Sits
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Kansas City Chiefs) @ Indianapolis Colts
Of the seven Kansas City Chiefs pass catchers who have earned five targets or more, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is dead last in targets per route run rate with a paltry 17.0%. Making matters worse, fifth-year wide receiver Justin Watson came off the bench and played Valdes-Scantling’s downfield role more effectively than Valdes-Scantling could, securing two-of-two targets for 50 yards and one touchdown. Watson had a pair of explosive pass plays in the preseason and head coach Andy Reid has to the thinking about whether Valdes-Scantling deserves his current 86.1% routes run rate moving forward, after catching just two of his seven targets for 13 yards.
Kansas City’s Week 3 foe, the Indianapolis Colts, have cut the head off their opponent’s downfield passing game, allowing an explosive pass play on just 5.1% of defensive snaps, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has always been content chewing up the short-to-intermediate area of the field with tight end Travis Kelce.
Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears) vs. Houston Texans
is a talented wide receiver, but Chicago’s passing game is a disaster. The Houston Texans secondary offers an excellent opportunity for Mooney, as Houston currently sits bottom-seven in both explosive pass play rate allowed (9.8%) and passing yards per game allowed (270.5) but quarterback Justin Fields is averaging just 14 pass attempts per game and Mooney has only earned a 13.0% targets per route run rate. Mooney cannot be trusted in re-draft formats until both numbers increase.
