Week 6 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Running Backs
Wondering who to start and sit at quarterback this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the quarterback position for Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 5 Review – half-PPR scoring
Starts
- RB Melvin Gordon (Denver Broncos) vs. Indianapolis Colts – 11.8 fantasy points (RB24)
- RB A.J. Dillon (Green Bay Packers) vs. New York Giants – 3.4 fantasy points (RB60)
- RB Nyheim Hines (Indianapolis Colts) @ Denver Broncos – 1.3 fantasy points (RB70)
Sits
- RB Cam Akers (Los Angeles Rams) vs. Dallas Cowboys – 15.2 fantasy points (RB11)
Running Back – Starts
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Buffalo Bills
Kansas City vs. Buffalo opened with an unholy 54-point over/under this week, easily the highest-totaled game on the Week 6 slate, and the Kansas City Chiefs are +3-point underdogs per 4for4 betting partner, MGM Grand. Both factors should keep Kansas City throwing all game, thanks to a fourth-ranked 63.0% neutral game passing rate, per Rotoviz’s NFL Pace App. Buffalo’s second-ranked 67.0% neutral game passing rate complements this nicely.
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in the midst of a third-year breakout season and has a chance to produce as a top-five fantasy running back this week.
Kansas City’s 3.2 points per drive are No. 1 overall and the team is top-three in both overall points scored in drives that reach the red zone (5.96), as well as touchdowns scored in drives that reach the red zone (0.75). While Kansas City splits reps between Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerick McKinnon with regularity, Edwards-Helaire’s 50 carries are nearly double that of Pacheco and McKinnon combined. Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon are also tied with 30.0% carry shares inside the opponent’s five-yard line.
Edwards-Helaire’s 18 targets tower over McKinnon’s 11 and Pacheco’s zero. Edwards-Helaire is also the only Kansas City running back to have earned end zone targets this year. His 1.63 yards per route run leads the backfield by over 1.0 yards and his 21.0% targets per route run rate beat the next closest Kansas City running back by a margin of 8.0%.
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rookie running back Jaylen Warren has taken over as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ primary pass-catching back over the last two weeks and he has a real shot at supplanting molasses-slow starter Najee Harris.
| Pittsburgh Steelers RB Usage Weeks 4-5 | Route Participation Rate - Targets | 3rd-Down Snap Rate | Red Zone Snap Rate (Weeks 1-3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 43.2% - 6 | 75.00% | 56.2% (20.0%) |
| Najee Harris | 35.2% - 4 | 25.00% | 43.8% (80.0%) |
Pittsburgh’s Week 6 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened with a 43.5 over/under at MGM Grand with Pittsburgh as a +8.5-point underdog, the second largest spread on the week. Pittsburgh has a mid-tier 57.0% neutral game passing rate and a slightly above average 76.0% passing rate when trailing by eight or more points, per Rotoviz’s NFL Pace App. Expect Warren to soundly out-snap Harris in this one.
*Full RB Rankings can be found here.
Running Backs – Sits
Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Dallas Cowboys opened as +4.5-point road underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles, with an uninspiring 42-point over/under. Lead running back Ezekiel Elliott has been showing his age (27) this year, repeatedly playing below the level of No. 2 running back/pass-catching specialist Tony Pollard.
| Dallas Cowboys RBs Weeks 1-5 | Yards per Carry - Yards After Contact per Carry | Route Participation Rate - Targets | Yards per Route Run |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3.8 - 1.8 | 52.2% - 7 | 0.33 |
| Tony Pollard | 5.6 - 3.1 | 33.8% - 13 | 1.34 |
Philadelphia is allowing just 105.2 rushing yards per game, the 10th fewest in the NFL, and owns the league’s third-lowest rushing expected points added (EPA) per play allowed, -0.034. Philadelphia’s 5.3% explosive rushing plays allowed rate ranks just 19th lowest but Elliott’s longest rush of 2022 went for just 27-yards, which has him tied for the 37th longest run of the year.
James Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ Indianapolis Colts
As mentioned in the Week 3 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Running Backs article, Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson was saving his box scores with a handful of splash plays. Over the last two weeks, Robinson’s performances have confirmed as much. Unable to gain longer than a nine-yard run, Robinson is the RB62 during that span. He is also ceding work to second-year running back Travis Etienne.
| Jacksonville Jaguars RB Usage | Share of Carries Weeks 1-3 - 4-5 | Route Participation Rate Weeks 1-3 - 4-5 |
|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 58.0% - 28.0% | 44.8% - 32.9% |
| Travis Etienne | 29.5% - 51.5% | 43.1% - 53.9% |
Week 6 offers Robinson no favors as the Indianapolis Colts are one of the league’s five best teams against the run, limiting opposing run games to just 98.2 yards per game. Both their -0.174 rushing EPA per play allowed and their 2.8% explosive run play rate allowed are the third stingiest numbers in their respective categories.
