SharpClarke's Best Week 9 NFL Bet: CAR @ CIN Matchup Spotlight

In this week's matchup spotlight, I zero in on an afternoon tilt in Cincinnati between the 4-4 Bengals and the 2-6 Panthers. First of all, to address the monkey in the room: No, the Panthers are not tanking. I don't think NFL teams typically try to lose, especially this early in the season. Players and coaches are trying to win and prove they can do their jobs better than their potential replacements. The Panthers fought to the final whistle last week, and I don't think they secretly told Eddie Pineiro to miss those two kicks. I'm assuming both these teams are trying to win, and I am going to focus on the matchup. Let's dive in.

My Numbers

Cincinnati: 14th (Offense: 19th, Defense: 8th)
Carolina: 30th (Offense: 32nd, Defense: 10th)
Baseline: CIN -8.5 -345 Moneyline

Matchup Breakdown

CIN Offense vs. CAR Defense

I came into the season excited about the Bengals' offense because I thought the reinforced offensive line and elite outside weapons would give Joe Burrow everything he needed to be comfortable throwing accurately from the pocket. I anticipated more successful running by Joe Mixon as defenses tried to take away big plays with 2-high shells. What I have seen through eight weeks is a major disappointment. They have been unable to run the ball well, even against softer fronts. They are 27th in rushing EPA/play. And Burrow has continued to invite pressure and sacks at an incredibly high rate.

This is why the nerds say sacks are a quarterback stat. Last year, Burrow led the NFL with 51 sacks taken, plus another 19 (!) in four playoff games. This year, he has taken 29 sacks in eight games, so he is ahead of even last year's pace. But his sack percentage (sacks per dropback) has been consistent, moving from 8.9% to 8.7%. So, the offensive line made no difference. Patrick Mahomes, on the other end of the spectrum, has had sack rates of 3.34%, 3.6%, 4.1%, and 4.4%. The quality of his offensive line has changed over time, but he continues to avoid sacks.

There are two shocking things about this. First, the Bengals have played a series of teams that fail to get pressure on the quarterback. Outside of the Jets and Cowboys, who are legitimately good pressure teams, the Bengals have faced six of the bottom eight defenses at exerting pressure on the season. And the last three teams they've faced also had key injuries in the secondary. Second, Burrow and the Bengals are actively trying to get the ball out quickly to offset pressure. Burrow's average depth of target is down to 6.7 from 8.1 yards in 2021. It's a less explosive passing attack with just as many negative plays. And now they are playing with Ja'Marr Chase, who is crucial to Burrow's success. It's not getting any better.

Quarterbacks like Burrow depend on the quality of their circumstances. He is an accurate passer, but he doesn't create with his legs and he doesn't use his vision and anticipation to manipulate defenses into making mistakes. He's not an offensive mastermind, at least not yet. So he needs his guys to win. And when Tee Higgins becomes the alpha wide receiver, this offense is significantly worse. We saw it on Monday night, and yet the market still thinks this Bengals' offense will continue to hum.

I go the other way. Carolina can get pressure on the quarterback. Their defensive numbers are not eye-popping, but they must be contextualized. They have played the Browns (elite offensive line), Giants (held to 3.8 yards per play), Saints (when they were healthy), Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Bucs, and Falcons. That is a slew of smart schemes (49ers), smart and experienced quarterbacks (Brady and Stafford), and quarterbacks with elite mobility (Murray and Mariota). Given what the Bengals have faced so far this season, it should be a good game for the Panthers' defense, who will get to Joe Burrow via blitzing and capitalize because Burrow's performance under pressure will be even worse without his top safety valve. Of all those offenses, the Bengals' offense most closely resembles the Bucs. And the Bucs really struggled against Carolina in an outright loss.

CAR Offense vs. CIN Defense

This side of the ball is more difficult to forecast. I have really enjoyed watching P.J. Walker in the last two weeks. He plays aggressively and instinctually. He has inconsistent accuracy, though, highlighted by an absolutely jaw-dropping throw to D.J. Moore to tie the game and a bad miss when Moore got massive separation downfield earlier in the game. If the game runs solely through him, he could have a difficult time against this Bengals' defense that has been playing at a high level. Their success on offense has actually come mostly on the ground, despite jettisoning Christian McCaffery. They have followed a league-wide trend this year that is seeing teams with mobile quarterbacks elevating their entire offense. When they shifted from Baker Mayfield to P.J. Walker, the offense did improve, particularly in the run game.

The Bengals are now missing their top cornerback in Chidobe Awuzie, to go with one of their best run-stoppers in D.J. Reader. I would not expect sustained success from the Panthers, on the road, against an above-average defense. But I expect Walker to continue to lean on Moore and the run game, and make enough plays to keep the game competitive if the defense can do its job. By my effectiveness ratings, the Panthers have played their two best offensive games of the season in the last two weeks. If that is a meaningful trend, then this Panthers offense is meaningfully mispriced and they can win this game outright. I believe it is meaningful when placed in the broader context of the NFL this season, in which quarterbacks who can create with their legs add a crucial element to their offense.

See the rest of SharpClarke's Week 9 Betting Card

Prediction

Burrow struggles once again with the Panthers' pressure, taking multiple sacks and throwing a lot of short passes that lead to third downs. They have intermittent success, with one or two splash plays to put up 23 or 24 points in a tight-fought game. The Panthers keep pace, thanks to some key defensive plays, and come up short in the end game.

Final Score Prediction: CIN 24, CAR 20

Market Evaluation

The lookahead line for this one before the Ja'Marr Chase injury was CIN -9 or CIN -9.5. But the events that transpired since then have materially impacted this game. The Panthers should have won their game outright as underdogs, displaying an offensive upside they previously had not shown. The Bengals lost Chase, which is absolutely huge. Then they got stomped by an average Browns team in primetime, confirming my thesis. Yet, the line opened CIN -8.5. I immediately bet CAR +8.5, and I know others were with me because the game went down to CIN -7. Then a high-profile bettor released CIN -7, and it bounced back up to CIN -7.5. Books are now widely settling between CIN -7 and CIN -7.5. This indicates fairly good resistance, and I feel comfortable being on the underdog here knowing people with market influence like the Bengals and the number is still being cabined between CIN -7 and CIN -7.5. If my handicap is correct, I expect this to close at a flat CIN -7 despite the market resistance.

Best Bets

When I wrote this article, CAR +7.5 (-110) was still available. Unfortunately, sportsbooks are widely respecting the Panthers' money and so this line is harder to find. As of now, CAR +7.5 flat is available at SouthPoint, CAR +7.5 (-112) is available on Circa CO, but the best widely-available line at retail books is CAR +7.5 (-115 on BetMGM). I would play this if you have access, but if not, wait for a better price because this might still bounce back and forth a bit.

CAR +7.5 (-115) (BetMGM)

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