How To Bet On The NFL Draft Today: This Week's Market Movers

Mar 16, 2023

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When I tell friends who aren't plugged into every draft rumor or relevant mock draft that comes out between January and late April that the NFL Draft is my favorite betting event of the year, the standard follow-up question is, "you can bet on that?"

My initial response is plagiarized from one of the many quips from the great Leslie Knope to Ann Perkins, "oh, you beautiful, naive, sophisticated, newborn baby. Of course, you can bet on the NFL Draft!" I'll take it one step further here, saying something that I'm often hesitant to say when it comes to betting. Not only can you bet on the NFL Draft, but you should bet on the NFL Draft.

The NFL Draft is different. Different from a standard side, total, or player props. Even with astute analysis, closing line value, or player projections that are better than the market-makers, standard bets are still at the mercy of on-the-field performance. The NFL Draft is an information market. There are ways to decern the answers to the test, and in certain instances, there's even an answer key. By grinding actionable news and staying connected with plugged-in sources, there's an opportunity to fire at the NFL Draft betting market with more confidence than any other bet you can make.

Last season, Connor and I finished up 40.76 units on unique draft bets (we won more but obviously had a ton of overlapping plays). That's off of officially posted plays in our subscriber-only Discord, which are tracked by a third party for transparency and authenticity.

We're still weeks away, and the market offerings are limited compared to what we'll get over the next few weeks. Player over/under bets, the number of players at each position drafted in the first round, along with many more offerings, are still to come. Right now, the limits are low, and the markets are fragile. Sportsbooks are reluctant to put themselves too far out on a limb, knowing that draft betting is a different beast. Books are also quick to move a line (C.J. Stroud, for instance) because they don't know if it's intel or steam-chasing, so they're more apt to move the line that's being bet while leaving the rest of the market offerings untouched.

On top of our weekly episodes of Move The Line, which is touching exclusively on the NFL Draft right now, I want to check in weekly on the market, focusing on what's moving, why it's moving, and if it matters. This week, I'll be touching on the first overall pick and the first defensive player market.

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1st Overall Pick

The biggest movement over the past month for the 1.01 involves Florida quarterback prospect Anthony Richardson. Back in late February, Richardson moved from as high as 50/1 to go first overall, all the way down to 7/1 in a matter of hours. That was spawned by his appearance as the top selection in a CBS Sports mock draft and matched the increasingly loud drumbeat about what was coming once he tested at the NFL Draft Combine in early March.