2023 NFL Draft: Live Fantasy Recap (Round 1)
The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 27th. The second and third rounds will be held on Friday (beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET), while Rounds 4-7 will happen on Saturday (12 p.m. ET). Coverage is on the NFL Network, ESPN, ABC, and also FuboTV Livestream.
* 4FOR4 LIVESTREAM: John Daigle, John Paulsen, Scott Smith, and Anthony Staggs will be live on the 4for4 YouTube channel Thursday night only starting at 7:30 ET!
Throughout Night 1, I'll be updating this page with player evaluations from our very own John Daigle, along with my take on the player's opportunity and potential fantasy impact in 2023. Be sure to check back tomorrow for the second round, as John will be taking over to summarize the mid-to-late-round picks.
1.01 - Panthers - QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Alabama's first quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy, Young (5'10/204) finished his career with a 66% completion rate (including 8.8 yards per attempt) and 23-4 win-loss record as a two-year starter in Tuscaloosa. His 27 consecutive games with a touchdown pass since 2021 qualified as a school record, seeing Young additionally exit with single-season records for passing yards (4,872) and touchdowns (47) with the Crimson Tide. The only quarterback in his class that Pro Football Focus assigned with 30% of the responsibility for allowed pressures, Young admittedly has a nagging tendency to hold onto the ball to compensate for his size — his average time to throw in his final year was 3.02 seconds, per PFF. Even so, one NFL general manager told The Athletic's Dane Brugler that Young's processing is at a “genius level”; Nick Saban said “he plays like a point guard.” Young still projects as a mid-range QB2 for fantasy given his lack of mobility — 4.8 carries, 1.4 yards per game the last two years — which won't threaten the top-12 options at his position.
Opportunity: A
Fantasy Impact: Young will have a decent array of offensive weapons to start his career with including D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen, Hayden Hurst, and Miles Sanders. We should see a decent amount of rushing yards per week from the rookie, putting him in the fantasy QB2 category with the possibility of streaming as the season moves along.
1.02 - Texans - QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
A two-year starter at Ohio State, Stroud (6'3/214) leveraged his career with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka — arguably five first-round receivers — into 324.9 passing yards and 3.4 passing touchdowns per game including an FBS-high 41 passing scores in his final year. He also led his class in completion rate on throws to both the intermediate (10-19 yards, 65%) and deep (20-plus, 51%) levels of the field, showcasing NFL-ready ball placement and vision. A top-two quarterback in both touchdowns and YPA from a clean pocket in 2022, scouts remain unsure whether his 12/34 rushing with three forced missed tackles in the Peach Bowl against Georgia were an aberration when the chips were down or a skill he'll deliver consistently at the next level — he averaged 3.0 carries with one missed tackle over his first 27 career games. That ambiguous rushing upside coupled with elite accuracy (career 9.8 YPA) inarguably gives Stroud a high floor that could potentially push him into low-end QB1 status for fantasy if it all clicks.
Opportunity: A
Fantasy Impact: C.J. Stroud doesn't inherit the strongest receiver room, but should be given every opportunity to make things happen in his first year in the NFL. The Texans likely won't be scoring a lot of points this season and subsequently, the fantasy pieces will fall in line. Stroud is not in the conversation for 1QB leagues but should be drafted in 2QB and superflex formats.
1.03 - Texans - EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama (via trade with ARI)
Only the second player to sweep the Nagurski Trophy (for the nation's best defensive player), Lombardi Award (best lineman), Bednarik Award (defensive player of the year), and Lott IMPACT Trophy (defensive IMPACT player of the year) in the same season, Anderson (6'43/253) started every game for the Crimson Tide since 2020, registering 60-plus pressures in every season in that span. He was also one of only seven players to be voted a two-time team captain under Nick Saban, averaging 734 snaps annually as a three-down EDGE. With an eye-popping first step and the on-field intelligence to identify (and blow up) running plays pre-snap, Anderson need only improve on his career 19.3% missed tackle rate to become a perennial All-Pro. He has the bend to beat the league's best tackles from day one.
1.04 - Colts - QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
The most athletic quarterback in Combine history, Richardson (6'4/244) set records at his position with a 40.5-inch vertical, 4.43 40-speed, and a 99th percentile broad jump (129 inches) with less than 10% body fat. Although that explosiveness was consistently shown on tape via his mobility, averaging 8.1 carries for 55.5 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns over his last two seasons with the Gators, he remains inexperienced (455 collegiate dropbacks) and, for that reason, unpolished (29.4% uncatchable rate in 2022) entering the league; his 38% completion rate under pressure,108 out of 144 FBS qualifiers last year, proves as much. Fortunately, Richardson will only be 22 throughout his rookie season with plenty of time to develop under Shane Steichen, who assisted in morphing Jalen Hurts from an athlete under center into an All-Pro quarterback. Patience will reward Indy's coaching staff with a top-five ceiling and, for fantasy managers, a late-round 'Konami Code' signal-caller.
Opportunity: A
Fantasy Impact: Arguably the most athletic QB prospect we've seen in a while. Anthony Richardson landed in a great spot for the future but for now, Gardner Minshew will be their bridge with Richardson brought along slowly. The former Gator needs to develop before we can count on him for fantasy purposes.
1.05 - Seahawks - CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
A consensus All-American and the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year in 2022, Witherspoon (5'11/181) sealed his journey as this class' top corner in finishing top-five in completion percentage allowed and yards per snap permitted in the FBS, per PFF. His 560 snaps from man coverage last season were also the second-most in the nation, being in his element if left on an island. With the best tape at his position, Witherspoon intelligently passed on drills at the combine.
1.06 - Cardinals - T Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State (via trade with Detroit)
The No. 10 overall recruit in the 2020 class, Johnson (6'6/313) was a reserve lineman (26 total snaps) in his first year and then played exclusively at right guard (2021) and left tackle (2022) over his last two seasons, closing his career with a durable 26 consecutive starts. As The Athletic's Dane Brugler noted, Johnson's only sacks at that position in 2022 were worrisomely allowed against stronger competition (Michigan, Georgia). As one of only 19 tackles to measure with 36-inch arms since 2000 (per Mike Renner), Johnson still projects as a day-one starter (albeit with only one year of experience there) with the highest ceiling of any tackle in this class.
1.07 - Raiders - EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Wilson (6'6/271) transferred to Texas Tech in August 2020, leading the team in tackles for loss in his junior and senior seasons (including 5.0 pressures per game in his final year). Boasting a rocked-up frame with 96th percentile arm length (35.5 inches), Wilson's raw power and tools are that of a prototypical All-Pro EDGE. Universally considered a top-three prospect in this class, there is some concern November's season-ending injury (and March 21 surgery) was performed on his Achilles rather than his foot, perhaps robbing him of development in year one and stunting what he can become in his career.
1.08 - Falcons - RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Robinson has zero chance of busting (outside of injury) after exploding for a 4.46-second 40, 37-inch vertical, and 1.52-second 10-yard split at 5'11/215. Those elite traits allowed him to lead the Longhorns in rushing (on only 86 carries) as an 18-year-old freshman and force an FBS-high 104 missed tackles with 4.1 yards after contact per attempt in his final year; Robinson's career 10.4 yards per target in the passing game additionally ranks as the fourth-highest mark of any player in his class. Offensive guru Steve Sarkisian had no issues featuring Bijan where it mattered most, feeding him the nation's fifth-most red zone targets among running backs since 2021. With 45 plays of 20-plus yards and 6.1 yards per carry over his career — The Athletic's Dane Brugler noted Robinson clocked 22.3 mph on the GPS — Bijan's above-average pass blocking will undoubtedly keep him on the field as a three-down option and RB1 for fantasy.
Opportunity: A
Fantasy Impact: Bijan Robinson is stepping into the perfect spot in Atlanta to put up fantasy RB1 numbers in his first year in the league. You'll pay for him though, as his ADP is currently 13.1, and that was before we knew his landing spot.
1.09 - Eagles - DT Jalen Carter, Georgia (via trade with Chicago)
Always viewed on a higher pedestal than former Georgia teammates Travon Walker, Jordan Davis, and Devonte Wyatt, Carter's (6'3/310) 18.9% pass-rush win rate led all Power Five interior linemen in 2021 despite finishing with only six career sacks (and being limited with an MCL injury in his final year). Arguably the most talented player in this class, his character concerns are real following legal troubles in leaving the scene of a fatal car crash in January and avoiding athletic testing for what was said to have been "cramping up and breathing heavily" in Indy. The 21-year-old's performance-ceiling however is not up for debate. Philadelphia is the perfect destination for Carter to mature around friends and collegiate teammates Nolan Smith and Davis.
1.10 - Bears - T Darnell Wright, Tennessee (via trade with Philadelphia)
Considered a perennial bust with double-digit pressures allowed in each of his first three seasons, Wright leaned down and moved exclusively to right tackle for his final year, permitting the third-lowest pressure rate (with no sacks) among Power Five tackles. Coaches were specifically impressed with his film against classmates Will Anderson, Will McDonald IV, and B.J. Ojulari in the SEC. Carrying a 97th percentile speed score (with a 5.01-second 40) at 6'6/333, Wright has both the athleticism and size to limit the league's best pass rushers both at the line of scrimmage and second level of the field.
1.11 - Titans - T Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
The highest-ranked recruit in Northwestern’s 2020 class, Skoronski started every game at left tackle for the Wildcats over the last three seasons, succeeding as a true freshman in place of Rashawn Slater (opted out) and against day-two prospect DL Adetomiwa Adebawore every day in practice. Although he put a bow on his career with the nation's fewest pressures allowed for any tackle with 830-plus snaps, Skoronski's 4th-percentile arm length (32.2-inches) at 6'4/313 is projected to pigeonhole him as an explosive guard at the next level; his 97th-percentile burst metrics (34.5-inch vertical, 9-foot-7 broad jump) can easily win on the interior. Note that he only played left tackle in college (and some guard in high school).
1.12 - Lions - RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (via trade with Arizona)
Gibbs (5'9/199) was initially recruited by Ohio State and Alabama (among other Power Five schools) but chose Georgia Tech and averaged 6.7 yards per touch (on 291 offensive touches) across 19 games in the ACC. A one-year starter under OC Bill O'Brien upon entering the transfer portal ahead of his final year, Gibbs led the Crimson Tide in rushing yards (926) and receptions (44), refusing to cough up a single fumble (on 195 touches) in the SEC and finishing his career with just two drops on 103 catchable targets (per PFF). Gibbs' blazing 4.36 40-speed at 199 pounds makes him a one-on-one nightmare at the next level, though he won't be treated as a three-down back for his height (5'9) and poor pass-pro displayed throughout his career; As The Athletic's Dane Brugler noted, Gibbs scored just two career touchdowns on goal-to-go situations. He also never had a 1,000-yard rushing season and recorded 20 carries in only one game in college. Even so, his career 23.9 yards per kick return (44/1,052/1) is further proof he's the shiftiest and best receiving back in this class bar none.
Opportunity: C+
Fantasy Impact: This pick makes an already murky RB room even murkier. If D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, and Gibbs are all on the roster at the start of the season, it will be tough to spend high draft capital on any of them. Consider all three guys fantasy RB2s for now.
1.13 - Packers - DE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
Arguably the best run defender among all EDGE players in this class, Van Ness' unheard-of 4.5-second 40 at 6'5/272 highlights his salivating size-speed combo as a one-move bulldozer with 11-inch hands. Although he recorded zero starts across 27 games at Iowa, he led the Hawkeyes in sacks and tackles for loss in his final year. His 2022 Appreciation Award on special teams will earn favors on Green Bay's active roster from day one.
1.14 - Steelers - OT Broderick Jones, Georgia (via trade with New England)
A one-year starter with only 1,392 career snaps (including a whopping 1,358 at left tackle) in OC Todd Monken's pro-ready scheme, Jones (6'5/311) projects as a violent blocker and polished starter with zero career holding penalties and 4.97 40-speed, the fastest among all offensive linemen in attendance in Indy. A former basketball player, the balance and tools are there for any team willing to endure the ups and downs that will undoubtedly come in the (raw) early stages of his development. Jones projects as an All-Pro LT if it all comes together.
1.15 - Jets - EDGE Will McDonald, Iowa State
An undersized EDGE at 6'4/239, McDonald totaled 127 career pressures across five seasons with the Cyclones, tying the Big 12's all-time record with 34 sacks. A jack of all trades who aligned at every position, McDonald leveraged his own burst (11-foot broad jump) and length (35-inch arms) to record double-digit forced fumbles and wreak havoc whether he played over offensive tackles (397 career snaps per Pro Football Focus) or rushed through gaps. Defensive coordinators should have confidence in deploying him as the poor man's Micah Parsons.
1.16 - Commanders - CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State
Don't let Forbes' slender 6-foot-1, 166-pound (!!!) frame fool you: as The Athletic's Dane Brugler noted, the former Mississippi State BullDOG totaled 30 interceptions over the past six seasons — 16 in his final three years of high school and 14 over three years in college, an FBS-record six which were housed for touchdowns. Exclusively an outside cornerback who allowed an FBS-best 20% completion rate in man coverage in 2022, Forbes can arguably be schemed from the outside in any defense since his straight line 4.35 40-speed will not allow him to be burned over the top.
1.17 - Patriots - CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon (via trade with Pittsburgh)
Gonzalez (6'1/197) transferred from Colorado to Oregon for his final season, totaling four interceptions and nine incompletions as a versatile man/zone coverage corner with length (32-inch arms) and experience both from the outside (70% in 2022) and slot (19%). The younger brother of two former All-American sprinters, he unsurprisingly wowed at the combine in clocking 23.3 mph on the GPS with a 42-inch vertical (96th percentile) and 11-foot-1 broad jump (95th). He opted out of the team's bowl game but fits the bill of what New England covets in their players, playing across punt and kick return units throughout his collegiate career. His speed alone will not allow him to get beat over the top when asked to press.
1.18 - Lions - LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
Even in playing with fellow NFL prospects Riley Moss and Lukas Van Ness (Packers), Campbell stood out among Iowa's defense as the best coverage LB in the country with only 236 receiving yards permitted on 418 coverage snaps (per Pro Football Focus) in 2022. That explosiveness and range to drape tight ends over the middle was explained at the combine when he tested with a 37.5-inch vertical, 10-foot-8 broad jump, and 6.74-second three-cone at 6'5/249. With 271 combined tackles and a Butkus Award nod for the nation's best linebacker over the last two seasons, Campbell will undoubtedly carve out a role as a 23-year-old rookie.
1.19 - Buccaneers - DT Calijah Kancey, Pitt
One of the nation's best disruptors with 47 pressures and eight sacks on only 275 pass-rushing snaps in his final year, Kancey (6'1/281) compiled an FBS-best 14.5 tackles for loss at his position. Conveniently comped to Aaron Donald for their respective size and collegiate ties, it was Kancey who ran a faster 4.67 40-time (99th percentile) than Los Angeles' All-Pro. Kancey, 22 throughout his rookie year, projects as Geno Atkins-lite in being an undersized force up the gut.
1.20 - Seahawks - WR Jaxon Smith- Njigba, Ohio State
Smith-Njigba ran 83% of his career routes from the slot with the Buckeyes, turning heads in 2021 with 4.01 Yards Per Route Run and 95-1,606-9 receiving alongside first-round teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Limited to 60 snaps with a hamstring injury suffered during the opening game of 2022, JSN laid any concerns over his athleticism to rest in stopping on a dime with a 6.5-second three-cone and 3.93-second shuttle (99th percentile agility times at 6'1/196) in Indy. Both D.K. Metcalf (16.8% slot rate last year) and Tyler Lockett (42.4%) are more than capable of moving around to fit JSN into three-wide sets in year one.
Opportunity: B
Fantasy Impact: This is a great landing spot for Jaxon Smith-Njigba for dynasty purposes, but slightly clouds up the WR room for 2023. Geno Smith gets a bump with a new weapon in town, but DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will have to split volume with the talented rookie.
1.21- Chargers - WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Johnston looks the part of a prototypical X receiver at 6'3/208 but plays like a larger Brandon Aiyuk in averaging a career 7.7 YAC per reception across three seasons at TCU, where he led the team in receiving yards in every campaign. Registering a 42-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump as a high school track star, Johnston's skillset can be maximized more underneath and in space rather than downfield, finishing with the 11th-fewest contested catches (9) out of 102 receivers with 100-plus targets in the Power Five. He did not participate in speed drills at the combine but has been clocked with a 4.4-second 40 on campus.
Opportunity: B
Fantasy Impact: Quentin Johnston joins an aging Keenan Allen and oft-injured Mike Williams in Justin Herbert's WR room. The Chargers need a fresh reliable wideout and Johnson could sneak his way into WR2 range if he adjusts well to the NFL.
1.22 - Ravens - WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
Flowers (5'9/182) was consistently schemed as the focal point of Boston College's anemic offense, totaling 309 targets since 2020 and, in his final year, 36% of the team's receiving yards and 57% of its touchdown catches for 78-1,077-12. With at least five receptions of 20-plus yards in all four seasons with the Eagles, Flowers' size (or lack thereof) is no issue given his 88th percentile 40-time (4.42) and experience from motion, jet sweeps, and usage in the slot, where he ran a route on 34% of his snaps the last three years. Rational coaching suggests OC Todd Monken has a plan in place for Flowers after the organization gifted Odell Beckham up to $18 million in incentives.
Opportunity: B
Fantasy Impact: With Lamar Jackson officially back in the mix, Zay Flowers is in a great spot to produce right away. The Ravens haven't had solid output from their WRs in recent years, but perhaps the addition of Flowers means Baltimore plans on passing more in 2023. A great fit with Jackson on the underneath routes, consider the rookie a WR3/4 with upside.
1.23 - Vikings - WR Jordan Addison, USC
The 2021 Belitnikoff Award Winner for the nation's most outstanding wideout, Addison (5'11/173) pasted the ACC with 100-1,593-17 before transferring to USC under offensive guru Lincoln Riley and seeing his slot rate dip from a nice 69% in his last hurrah with Pittsburgh to 19% (with 59-875-8 receiving) in his final year. He did not do himself any favors at the combine, testing as a below-average athlete with a suboptimal frame, but Addison's 3.28 Yards Per Route Run against man coverage in 2022 and immediate opportunity (with first-round capital) in place of Adam Thielen are huge wins for his year-one outlook.
Opportunity: A
Fantasy Impact: The Vikings added a WR2 to play alongside Justin Jefferson and fantasy managers are here for it. K.J. Osborn gets a bump down and Addison could put up some solid weeks in this offense. Kirk Cousins should be stoked for his receiving corps in 2023
1.24 - Giants - CB Deonte Banks, Maryland (via trade with Jacksonville)
Banks (6'0/197) was on a trajectory to finish with four years' worth of starts with the Terrapins before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the second game of 2021. He did not miss a beat in returning as a redshirt junior, allowing the Big 10's fourth-lowest completion rate (43.3% per PFF) as a large and sticky boundary corner, notably limiting Marvin Harrison Jr. to 5-68 receiving. His impressive 4.35 40-time and 11-foot-4 broad jump cement him with All-Pro traits.
1.25 - Bills - TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah (via trade with Jacksonville)
Boasting a class-high 2.5 Yards Per Route Run as one of only three FBS tight ends with 16-plus forced missed tackles in 2022, Kincaid (6'4/246) led the Utes as a fifth-year senior (following three seasons in the FCS) with 70-890-8 receiving. Deployed in the slot on 55% of his career snaps, he profiles exclusively as a move TE similar to Greg Dulcich; 24 in October, Kincaid's athleticism remains a mystery given that he was sidelined for the Senior Bowl and combine drills due to shoulder (October 2022) and thoracic (November 2022) injuries. Note that 20% of his career receptions (175) resulted in a touchdown. The fact the Bills leapfrogged the Cowboys (No. 26 overall) by one spot in order to add Kincaid is proof the team has a plan in place for him from the jump.
Opportunity: C
Fantasy Impact: Despite landing in one of the best offenses in the league, Dalton Kincaid will have to fight for targets not only with Dawson Knox, but the WR room as well. It's already tough for rookie TEs to make an impact in their first season, and having a fantasy-relevant TE already on the roster makes things even tougher to invest too high of draft capital in Kincaid.
1.26 - Cowboys - DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
Smith (6'3/323) averaged a workhorse 42 snaps per game against Big 10 competition over his last two years at Michigan. While he turned heads at the combine with 34 bench reps (with 33 3/4-inch arms), Smith reportedly lifts 22 reps with 325 pounds (rather than the appointed 225) during his regular workouts. With a 33-inch vertical and 9-foot-4 broad jump as Bruce Feldman's No. 1 'Freak', Smith is viewed as the strongest and most intimidating run-plug in this class.
1.27 - Jaguars - OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (via trade with Bills)
Harrison (6'4/315) allowed only one hit on 425 pass-blocking snaps in his final year with the Sooners, logging the nation's 10th-most snaps in power/counter packages as an experienced run-blocker with the speed (4.98 40) to assist in the second level. With zero career snaps on the interior (100% left and right tackle in college), Harrison, 21 throughout his rookie year, has more than enough time (and the necessary tools) to develop into a high-end starter.
1.28 - Bengals - DE Myles Murphy, Clemson
Murphy (6'4/268) is coveted more for his freakish traits rather than his consistent 37 tackles for loss across 38 appearances — all consecutive before opting out of the team's bowl game — at Clemson, benching 405 pounds with a 505-pound deadlift and 335-pound power-clean at 13.5% body fat. His physicality and knack for the ball with six career forced fumbles project him as a disruptor in 4-3 schemes in the NFL.
1.29 - Saints - DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Recruited to Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State as a five-star prospect out of high school, Bresee (6'6/298) has not logged 330-plus snaps since 2020 after tearing his ACL four games into the 2021 season (and fighting through a shoulder injury in his final year). Although he failed to flash any pass rush moves on tape, he tested with an elite 4.86 40 and 1.71-second 10-yard split as a toolsy bulldozer with pedigree. He has been known to bench 435 pounds, power-clean 330, and deadlift 585.
1.30 - Eagles - LB Nolan Smith, Georgia
The nation's No. 1 recruit in 2019, Smith's lean 6-foot-2, 238-pound frame allows him to burst in a myriad of directions as a toolsy pass rusher with the range to drop back in coverage; that latter ability attributed to his poor production on paper, totaling 11.5 sacks across 46 games in the SEC. His otherworldly 4.39-second 40 and 41.5-inch vertical project him to be a more successful EDGE in the NFL. Smith notably suffered a torn pec in October that held him out of strength drills in Indy.
1.31 - Chiefs - DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State
A 21-year-old rookie with 33.5-inch arms, Anudike-Uzomah (6'4/255) garners attention as a hyperproductive pass rusher with 19.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles over the last two years at Kansas State including Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors in his final season. His ability to bend underneath larger offensive tackles will be coveted in a rotational role from day one as he continues to develop other aspects of his game.
